Report published September 27, 2026

China GDP Tracking: A Real-Time Nowcasting Framework – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs · September 27, 2026

Goldman Sachs introduces a real-time nowcasting framework to track China's official GDP growth using a combination of PMI surveys, bridge trade/auto indicators, and production-side output data. Based on partial data, the tracker points to 4.1% yoy growth for 2026Q3, signaling downside risk to consensus and GS's baseline 4.4% forecast.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Official real GDP growth in China slowed to 4.3% yoy in Q2 2026 from 5.0% in Q1, raising concerns over achieving the annual 4.5–5.0% growth target.
2.Goldman Sachs introduces a 3-pillar China GDP nowcasting model: a PMI signal model, a bridge indicator model, and a production-side model combining sectoral activity.
3.Forecast accuracy improves significantly as monthly data arrive; an equal-weighted average of the three models yields the lowest forecast error (RMSE).

China GDP Tracking: A Real-Time Nowcasting Framework
Our GDP Nowcasting Model
Model Evaluation: Comparing Real-Time Accuracy
Our View on 2026 Q3 GDP

Report data

Exhibit 5: Data flow in our China GDP nowcasting model

Metric	Estimate	Context
Official Real GDP Growth	4.3%	Slowed from 5.0% yoy in Q1 2026
China GDP Nowcasting Model Tracker	4.1%	Nowcast indication based on partial quarterly data
Goldman Sachs Q3 Real GDP Forecast	4.4%	Revised down previously from 4.6% yoy; maintained despite 4.1% nowcast
Full-Year Official GDP Growth Target Range	4.5-5.0%	Official government full-year growth target range
H1 2026 Average GDP Growth	4.7%	Average growth in the first half of 2026