Report published September 2, 2026
Goldman Sachs Research: China Commodities 1H26A Earnings Review
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- September 2, 2026
- Analysis as of
- September 1, 2026
Authors / editors: Trina Chen (Lead Analyst), Joy Zhang (Contributing Analyst), Roy Shi (Contributing Analyst), Fiona Ye (Contributing Analyst), Daisy Dai (Contributing Analyst)
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Goldman Sachs reviews 1H26 results across Chinese bulk commodities, noting that cement earnings broadly missed expectations, coal was in line, and steel was better than feared. The analysts downgrade CNBM to Neutral and CRBMT to Sell while maintaining Buy on Conch and Chinacoal.
Key Takeaways
- 1.1H26 earnings were mostly below expectations for cement, in line for coal, and better than feared in steel; depressed margins in cement, steel, and paper are expected to persist into 2H26E.
- 2.Coal remains the preferred bulk commodity subsector supported by resilient demand and domestic supply constraints from tightened safety measures.
- 3.Goldman Sachs downgraded CNBM from Buy to Neutral and CRBMT from Neutral to Sell, while reiterating Buy ratings on Chinacoal and Conch.
Table of Contents
- Exhibit 1: 1H26A earnings review summary - steel, coal, cement, and paper packaging
- Exhibit 2: China basic materials - coverage summary
- Coal - Shenhua (1088.HK/601088.SS): 1H26A in line with expectation, maintain Neutral
- Coal - Chinacoal (1898.HK/601898.SS): 1H26A below expectation, maintain Buy
- Coal - Yankuang (1171.HK/600188.SS): 1H26A inline with expectation, maintain Neutral/Sell on H/A
- Cement - Conch (0914.HK/600585.SS): 1H26A inline with expectation, maintain Buy on H/A
- Cement - CNBM (3323.HK): 1H26A below expectation, downgrade to Neutral from Buy
- Cement - CRBMT (1313.HK): 1H26A below expectation, downgrade to Sell from Neutral
- Cement - BBMG (2009.HK/601992.SS): 1H26A below expectation, maintain Neutral/Sell on H/A
- Cement - WCC (2233.HK): 1H26A above expectation, maintain Sell
- Steel - Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019.SS): 1H26A above expectation, maintain Neutral
- Steel - Angang (0347.HK/000898.SZ): 1H26A above expectation, maintain Sell
- Steel - Maanshan (0323.HK/600808.SS): 1H26A above expectation, maintain Neutral/Sell
- Paper - Sun Paper (002078.SZ): 1H26 above expectation, maintain Sell
- Appendix - Investment thesis and price target methodologies and risks
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Exhibit 1: 1H26A earnings review summary - steel, coal, cement, and paper packaging — as of September 1, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| QHD5500 coal spot price benchmark assumption | 813-850 Rmb/t | Goldman Sachs revised down its benchmark coal price assumption for 2026-2027E. |
| China Shenhua 1H26A Recurring Net Profit | 30,987 Rmb mn | Proforma recurring net profit consolidated recent asset acquisitions. |
| China Shenhua 2026E Capex Guidance | 56 Rmb bn | Guidance updated upon incorporating asset injection from Parentco. |
| Anhui Conch 1H26A Recurring Net Profit | 3,037 Rmb mn | In line with expectations due to JV/associates income offset by weak cement operations. |
| CNBM 1H26A Reported Net Profit | -829 Rmb mn | Earnings missed expectations due to weaker margins across all segments and Rmb1.9bn provisions. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- QHD5500 coal spot price benchmark assumption: 813-850 Rmb/t (2026E-2027E) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- China Shenhua 1H26A Recurring Net Profit: 30,987 Rmb mn (1H26A) · Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- China Shenhua 2026E Capex Guidance: 56 Rmb bn (2026E) · Source: Company data
- Anhui Conch 1H26A Recurring Net Profit: 3,037 Rmb mn (1H26A) · Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- CNBM 1H26A Reported Net Profit: -829 Rmb mn (1H26A) · Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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