Report published September 30, 2026
China and Japan Machinery Export Tracker: DMs Rebound; EMs Accelerate ex-Middle East – Goldman Sachs Research
Goldman Sachs · September 30, 2026
Goldman Sachs' August 2026 machinery export tracker reveals that combined excavator export value from China and Japan rebounded +19% yoy, driven by a sharp turn to positive growth in North America and robust momentum in South America and Africa.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Combined China and Japan excavator export value rose +19% yoy in August 2026 (vs. -1% in July), with volume accelerating to +33% yoy, driven by rebounds in developed markets and accelerating emerging markets ex-Middle East.
- 2.Developed markets rebounded significantly: North America turned positive yoy in August in both volume (+69%) and value (+26%), while Europe's value decline narrowed to -8% with steady volume growth of +12%.
- 3.Emerging market export growth accelerated in South America (+80% volume, +123% value), Southeast Asia, and Africa, while the Middle East turned negative in August (-12% volume, -19% value).
Table of Contents
- China exports vs. Japan exports
- Construction machinery export barometer
- GS China and Japan machinery export tracker: A tool to monitor global machinery sales
- Monthly excavator export volume tracker
- Monthly excavator export value tracker
- Key facts about China and Japan excavator exports
- Mapping out key global players' CE sales breakdown by machinery type
- Summary of the results of our correlation analysis
- Back-testing the correlation vs. global machinery companies' quarterly sales
- Back-testing the correlation vs. actual market demand
Report data
Monthly China and Japan excavator export volume and value barometer
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Combined China & Japan Excavator Export Value Growth | 19.0% | Total combined export value of excavators from China and Japan yoy % change |
| Combined China & Japan Excavator Export Volume Growth | 33.0% | Total combined exports volume of excavators from China and Japan yoy % change |
| China Excavator Export Value Growth | 28.0% | Total China excavator export value growth yoy |
| Japan Excavator Export Value Growth | 12.0% | Total Japan excavator export value growth yoy |
| North America Export Volume Growth (Combined) | 69.0% | Total combined China and Japan excavator export volume to North America yoy % change |
Reports in this series
China and Japan Machinery Export Tracker is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 30, 2026.
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