Report published September 1, 2026
Chile Economic Research: Goldman Sachs Lowers 2026 Growth Forecast to 0.6%
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- September 1, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Sergio Armella
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Chile's real GDP (Imacec) dropped 1.5% yoy (-1.7% mom sa) in July, missing consensus estimates largely due to a winter storm impacting mining and broader softness in non-mining sectors. Consequently, Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% from 0.8%.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Chilean real GDP (Imacec) contracted by 1.5% yoy (-2.1% yoy sa; -1.7% mom sa) in July, coming in well below consensus (-0.7% yoy) and Goldman Sachs expectations (-0.2% yoy).
- 2.Goldman Sachs revised down its full-year 2026 growth forecast for Chile to 0.6% from 0.8%, citing underlying economic weakness and negative statistical carry-over.
- 3.July's contraction was heavily driven by a 9.4% mom sa decline in mining due to adverse winter weather, while non-mining activity retrenched 0.5% mom sa.
Table of Contents
- KEY NUMBERS (July):
- DETAILS:
- Activity Has Had a Soft Year so Far in 2026
- Adverse Weather Impacted Activity in July
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Activity Has Had a Soft Year so Far in 2026
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP Growth (Imacec) | -1.5 % yoy | Chile July monthly real GDP contraction vs consensus -0.7% yoy and GS -0.2% yoy |
| Real GDP Growth (Imacec, Seasonally Adjusted) | -1.7 % mom sa | Sequential decline in July monthly GDP |
| Mining GDP Growth | -9.4 % mom sa | Mining contraction driven in part by winter storm |
| Chile 2026 Real GDP Growth Forecast | 0.6% | Revised down from 0.8% before |
| Q3 2026 Growth Statistical Carry-Over | -1.5 % qoq sa | Tracking carry-over for growth in Q3 following July print |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Real GDP Growth (Imacec): -1.5 % yoy (2026-07) · Source: BCCh
- Real GDP Growth (Imacec, Seasonally Adjusted): -1.7 % mom sa (2026-07) · Source: BCCh
- Mining GDP Growth: -9.4 % mom sa (2026-07) · Source: BCCh
- Chile 2026 Real GDP Growth Forecast: 0.6 % (2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Q3 2026 Growth Statistical Carry-Over: -1.5 % qoq sa (2026-Q3) · Source: BCCh, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Themes
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