Report published September 8, 2026

Chile: Higher-Than-Expected Inflation Driven by Non-Core Pressures

Goldman Sachs · September 8, 2026

Chile's August headline CPI rose 0.6% mom (4.1% yoy), exceeding consensus expectations due to non-core food and fuel price pressures. Underlying core inflation excluding volatile items remained modest at 0.1% mom (3.3% yoy), indicating that demand-side inflation remains contained.

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Key Takeaways

1.Chilean headline CPI rose 0.6% mom (4.1% yoy) in August, exceeding consensus expectations of 0.3% mom (3.8% yoy) primarily due to non-core pressures.
2.The central bank's preferred core measure (core excluding volatile items) remained contained at 0.1% mom and 3.3% yoy, driven by benign core goods and easing services inflation.
3.Non-core components—specifically weather-impacted food prices and higher fuel prices—drove the upside surprise, prompting Goldman Sachs to lift its year-end 2026 inflation forecast to 4.2%.

Bottom Line
KEY NUMBERS (August)
DETAILS

Report data

Chile: Inflation Dynamics Since 2010

Metric	Estimate	Context
Headline CPI Inflation (mom)	0.6%	Above consensus and GS expectations of 0.3% mom (0.62% unrounded)
Headline CPI Inflation (yoy)	4.1%	Firmed from 3.5% yoy in July, 0.3pp above consensus
Core CPI Inflation ex-Volatile Items (mom)	0.1%	Central bank's preferred core inflation measure (0.09% unrounded)
Core CPI Inflation ex-Volatile Items (yoy)	3.3%	Edged up from 3.2% yoy in July
Core Services Inflation (yoy)	4.3%	Unchanged from July at 4.3% yoy; printed 0.2% mom