Goldman Sachs: CEEMEA Week Ahead – NBK Policy Cut, BoI Rate Hold, and Regional Inflation Outlook

Goldman Sachs previews the upcoming week across CEEMEA, forecasting a 75bp rate cut by Kazakhstan's NBK to 16.00% and a hold by the Bank of Israel at 3.50%. The team also highlights key regional CPI and PMI data prints alongside a high-conviction bullish view on South African government bonds.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) is expected to cut its policy rate by 75bp to 16.00%, driven by material FX appreciation and easing inflation momentum.
• 2.The Bank of Israel (BoI) is expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.50% in a close call, exercising caution to assess past cuts amid geopolitical uncertainty and a tight labor market.
• 3.Goldman Sachs remains constructive on South African Government Bonds (SAGBs), expecting yields to decline as authorities outperform fiscal targets and rating agencies potentially upgrade South Africa's modal rating to BB+.

Table of Contents

• Israel: In a Close Call, We Expect the BoI to Remain on Hold at +3.50%
• Kazakhstan: In a change of Call, We Now Expect the NBK to Cut by 75bp (Prev. -50bp) As Inflation Dips Below 10.0% in August
• Poland: Headline CPI to Edge Up from +3.0%yoy to +3.1%yoy in August (vs. Cons: 3.2%)
• Kenya: CPI to Edge Down by 0.1pp to +6.4%yoy in August
• Ghana: CPI to Rise to 5.2%yoy in August
• Turkiye: Headline inflation to Edge Up Due to Rising Fuel Prices
• Czechia: Headline Inflation to Increase by 0.2pp to +1.9%yoy
• Turkiye: Growth in Turkiye to Remain Close to Unchanged in Q2 as Weakening Domestic Demand is Offset by Lower Imports
• PMIs Across the Region
• Conviction Macro Views
• South Africa: Constructive on SAGBs as Authorities Restore Fiscal Credibility

Report data

SAGB Curve Remains Steep and Real Yields Elevated, Despite Recent Rally

Reports in this series

CEEMEA Week Ahead is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 28, 2026.

Part of the CEEMEA Week Ahead series — view all 10 editions

Looking for the latest edition? CEEMEA Week Ahead CBR to Cut 25bp, NBP and TCMB on Hold (Sep 4, 2026)

1. May 10CEEMEA Week Ahead NBR On Hold
2. May 22CEEMEA Week Ahead SARB to Hike by 25bp
3. May 24CEEMEA Week Ahead SARB to Hike by 25bp, BoI and MNB on Hold
4. Jun 6CEEMEA Week Ahead CBK and TCMB on Hold
5. Jun 12CEEMEA Week Ahead NBU on Hold, CNB to Hike by 25bp, CBR to Cut by 50bp
6. Jul 24CEEMEA Week Ahead NBU to Hike by 50bp
7. Jul 31CEEMEA Week Ahead CNB To Hold
8. Aug 7CEEMEA Week Ahead NBR and CBK on Hold

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessCreate free account