Report published September 25, 2026

CEEMEA Week Ahead: CPI in PL, KE and KZ; PMIs Across the Region | Goldman Sachs Research

Goldman Sachs · September 25, 2026

This report previews upcoming CEEMEA economic releases for early October 2026, including September inflation prints in Poland, Kenya, and Kazakhstan, as well as regional PMIs. It also reiterates a conviction bullish view on South African government bonds driven by improving fiscal credibility and expected credit rating upgrades.

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Key Takeaways

1.Poland's September headline CPI is projected to increase from +3.4% yoy to +3.9% yoy due to higher transport fuel prices, but the bar for an NBP rate hike remains high.
2.Kenya headline CPI is forecast to edge up by 0.3pp to +6.9% yoy in September on higher oil and food prices, with core inflation facing upward second-round pressure.
3.Kazakhstan headline inflation is expected to decline from +9.9% yoy to +9.4% yoy owing to base effects and strong KZT appreciation (+7% vs USD since late July).

Poland: Headline CPI to Rise from +3.4%yoy to +3.9%yoy in September, Driven by Transport Fuels
Kenya: CPI to Edge Up by 0.3pp to +6.9%yoy in September
Kazakhstan: Headline Inflation to Fall to 9.4%yoy Driven by Base Effects and FX Strength
PMIs Across the Region
Conviction Macro Views
South Africa: Constructive on SAGBs as Authorities Restore Fiscal Credibility

Report data

SAGB Curve Remains Steep and Real Yields Elevated, Despite Recent Rally

Metric	Estimate	Context
Poland Headline CPI Inflation Forecast	3.9 % yoy	Forecast to rise from +3.4% yoy in August, driven by transport fuels.
Kenya Headline CPI Inflation Forecast	6.9 % yoy	Forecast to rise from +6.6% yoy in August on higher oil and food prices.
Kazakhstan Headline CPI Inflation Forecast	9.4 % yoy	Forecast to decline from +9.9% yoy in August due to base effects and KZT strength.
CEEMEA Aggregate Manufacturing PMI	50.1 index	Edged down from 50.2 (revised from 50.1), remaining slightly expansionary.
South Africa FY2025/26 Overall Budget Deficit	4.3 % of GDP	National Treasury beat its deficit forecast with an overall deficit of 4.3% and a primary surplus of 1.1% of GDP.