Goldman Sachs Research: CEEMEA Outlook — Cautiously Optimistic (September 2026)

Goldman Sachs remains cautiously optimistic on the CEEMEA macro outlook, arguing that markets have overestimated the inflation and interest rate risks stemming from the Iran war and energy price shock. The firm holds a dovish rate stance across most of the region while maintaining bullish recommendations on CEEMEA Frontier FX (EGP, KZT, NGN, TRY) and South African Government Bonds.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Markets have overestimated inflation and interest rate risks across CEEMEA following the energy price shock, maintaining a dovish outlook relative to market pricing across most central banks, especially in CEE-3 and South Africa.
• 2.CEEMEA regional growth is accelerating according to high-frequency indicators (CAI at ~3.5% annualized), although full-year 2026 growth forecasts remain below potential and consensus ahead of an expected 2027 recovery.
• 3.Frontier FX remains attractive for carry strategies and offers orthogonality to global macro headwinds, with top positive recommendations in EGP, KZT, NGN, and TRY.

Table of Contents

• Forecast Highlights: Moderate Growth, Contained Inflation, Dovish Rates
• Managing Back-to-School Nerves
• Growth: High-Frequency Indicators Point to an Improvement in Activity
• Inflation: Still Contained
• Interest Rates: Mostly Dovish
• Regional and Country Views
• Conviction Macro Views
• Macroeconomic Forecasts
• CEEMEA Policy Rate Forecasts
• Disclosure Appendix

Report data

Exhibit 8: We Have Raised Our Rate Forecasts; Nevertheless We Think the Market Has Overreacted to the Shock

Reports in this series

CEEMEA Economics Analyst is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 2, 2026.

1. Sep 1CEEMEA Economics Analyst South Africa — The Path Back to Investment Grade(1)

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