Report published August 28, 2026
Busy Ming Group (1768.HK) NDR Takeaways: Store Expansion, Unit Economics & SSSG Levers
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 28, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 28, 2026
Authors / editors: Leaf Liu, Christina Liu, Valerie Zhou
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of HK$610 for Busy Ming Group following a post-results NDR with the CFO. Management affirmed long-term store targets of 50k-60k, healthy 2-year franchisee payback periods, and multiple levers for same-store sales growth.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Management maintains a long-term potential of 50k-60k stores and a ~Rmb200bn GMV target in ~3 years, with ~8k store openings targeted for 2026.
- 2.Townships offer substantial whitespace where Busy Ming has penetrated only 10-20% of addressable locations, benefiting from lower operating costs.
- 3.Franchisee payback averages ~2 years with a low closure rate of ~0.6%, underpinned by disciplined site selection and healthy unit economics.
Table of Contents
- Key takeaways
- Price Target Risks and Methodology - Busy Ming
- Disclosure Appendix
- Reg AC
- GS Factor Profile
- M&A Rank
- Quantum
- Disclosures
- Company-specific regulatory disclosures
- Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships
- Price target and rating history chart(s)
- Target price history table(s)
- Regulatory disclosures
- Ratings, coverage universe and related definitions
- Global product; distributing entities
- General disclosures
Report data
Valuation and Financial Forecast Summary — as of August 28, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 12-month Price Target | 610.00 HK$ | Price target based on 17x 2027E P/E discounted back to mid-2027 |
| Current Share Price | 444.80 HK$ | Closing share price as of 28 Aug 2026 |
| Store Target Opening | 8000 stores | Openings targeted for 2026 |
| Long-term Store Potential | 50000-60000 stores | Long-term store potential with c.Rmb200bn GMV target |
| Average Franchisee Payback | 2 years | Average franchisee payback period |
Reports in this series
Busy Ming Group NDR Takeaway: Confidence in Long-Term Store Potential Reinforced, with Healthy UE and Multiple SSSG Levers is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 28, 2026.
Looking for the latest edition? Busy Ming Group (1768.HK) NDR takeaway Unlocking quality expansion potential underpinned by whitespaces and L T store corpo... (Sep 10, 2026)
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- 12-month Price Target: 610.00 HK$ (12m forward) · Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates
- Current Share Price: 444.80 HK$ (2026-08-28) · Source: FactSet
- Store Target Opening: 8000 stores (2026) · Source: Company data
- Long-term Store Potential: 50000-60000 stores (~3 years) · Source: Company data
- Average Franchisee Payback: 2 years · Source: Company data
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