Report published September 23, 2026
Bristol-Myers Squibb: Complicated Setup for Upcoming Admilparant Phase 3 IPF Readout – Goldman Sachs Equity Research
Goldman Sachs · September 23, 2026
Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating and $63 price target on Bristol-Myers Squibb ahead of the Phase 3 ALOFT-IPF admilparant readout expected in late October/November 2026. The firm views trial success and failure as equally weighted, presenting a +/-5% DCF swing factor that is already reflected in the current share price.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The upcoming ALOFT-IPF Phase 3 readout for admilparant in October/November 2026 has an approximately equal probability of success and failure (50% POS).
- 2.KOLs and survey data define clinical success as limiting absolute FVC decline to ~100-125 mL (~30-50% improvement vs. placebo) with manageable tolerability.
- 3.Admilparant represents an approximate +/-5% swing factor on Goldman Sachs' DCF valuation of BMY, with $2.7bn in unadjusted peak sales modeled by 2035.
Table of Contents
- Assessing Admilparant's Upcoming Phase 3 Readout in IPF
- Background and Our Diligence
- Takeaways from Meeting with Program Management
- Survey Results
- Valuation and Risks
Report data
Exhibit 3: What is the maximum absolute FVC decline (ml) you believe would be clinically meaningful/prompt you to utilize admilparant? — as of September 22, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 12m Price Target | 63.00 USD | Goldman Sachs target price on BMY equity based on 10.0x Q5-Q8 EPS estimates |
| Current Share Price | 62.25 USD | Closing share price as of September 22, 2026 |
| Peak / 2035 Unadjusted Sales for Admilparant | 2.7 USD billions | Modeled unadjusted peak sales for admilparant in IPF, split $1.5bn US and $1.2bn OUS |
| Admilparant Probability of Success (POS) | 50% | Base case trial probability of success modeled in Goldman Sachs valuation |
| DCF Valuation Flex on Trial Outcome | 5% | Impact of 100% POS vs 0% POS on internal DCF valuation |
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