Report published September 29, 2026

Brazil Votes: Too Close, A Familiar Choice, A Fiscal Reckoning – Goldman Sachs Research

Goldman Sachs · September 29, 2026

Brazil heads into its October 4, 2026 general election with incumbent President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a virtual dead heat pointing to an October 25 runoff. The next administration faces an urgent fiscal reckoning with rising debt exceeding 82% of GDP and an autonomous, center-right Congress.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The 2026 Brazilian presidential race between incumbent President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is highly polarized and tightly contested, pointing toward an inevitable second-round runoff on October 25.
2.Voter concerns have shifted toward violence/public security and corruption, outranking traditional social concerns, which favors Bolsonaro over Lula despite full employment and higher fiscal transfers.
3.Congress is projected to remain autonomous, fragmented, and center-right, serving as an effective check and balance requiring broad multiparty coalition-building by either president.

Brazil Votes: Too Close, A Familiar Choice, A Fiscal Reckoning
Presidential, Gubernatorial, Federal and Local Legislative Elections
What are the Polls and Prediction Markets Saying?
Voting Preferences Have Solidified
Violence and Corruption Top Voters Concerns Ahead of Economic Issues
What Would Qualify as a First-Round Surprise?
What to Monitor?
A Fragmented and Ideologically Spongy Center-Right Lower House
A Still Fragmented Senate
Center-Right Expected to Perform Strongly in Gubernatorial Races
Outlook for Macro Policy 2027–2030
Latam and Global Macroeconomic Outlook
Consolidated Latin America Selected Economic Indicators
Global Macroeconomic Framework
Latam Country Data Tables
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
Mexico
Peru
Latam Financial Markets Outlook
Latin America Swap Rates
Latin America Forecasts

Report data

Exhibit 9: A Toss Up Runoff - Runoff Polls — as of September 28, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
Brazil Registered Voters	158.0 million	Total number of registered voters casting ballots in Brazil's general election on October 4, 2026.
Combined Voting Intention of Leading Candidates	85.0%	Share of voting intentions held jointly by Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro.
Brazil Gross General Government Debt	83.1 % of GDP	Gross general government debt projected to rise from 78.6% of GDP in 2025 to 83.1% in 2026F and 86.9% in 2027F.
Brazil Public Sector Nominal Fiscal Deficit	-8.7 % of GDP	Forecast of Brazilian public sector nominal balance for 2026.
First-Round Polling Average for Lula da Silva	41.0%	Average across major first-round opinion polls for Lula da Silva.

Source: Superior Electoral Court; Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; DataFolha, PoderData, Quaest, Real Time, AtlasIntel, Futura, Nexus. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.