Report published August 31, 2026
Brazil Macro Outlook: Uptick in 2027 Inflation Expectations and Unchanged Selic Path
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 31, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Alberto Ramos
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
The Central Bank of Brazil's weekly market survey showed 2027 inflation expectations rising to 4.28% while 2026 growth expectations edged down to 1.92%. Median Selic rate expectations remained unchanged at 13.75% for 2026 and 12.00% for 2027 amid persistent projected fiscal deficits.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Inflation expectations for the policy-relevant year 2027 ticked up 3bp to 4.28%, while 2026 expectations eased slightly by 1bp to 5.01%, both remaining substantially above the 3.0% target.
- 2.Median Selic policy rate expectations remain unchanged across the forecast horizon at 13.75% for 2026, 12.00% for 2027, 10.50% for 2028, and 10.00% for 2029.
- 3.Real GDP growth expectations for 2026 softened slightly to 1.92% from 1.95%, while 2027 growth projections held steady at 1.50%.
Table of Contents
- Median Inflation Expectations: Above Target 2026-2028 Expectations
- 12-Month Ahead Inflation Expectations
- Median Selic Policy Rate Expectations
- Median Real GDP Growth Expectations
- Median Primary Fiscal Balance Expectations
- Median Overall Fiscal Balance Expectations
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Median Inflation Expectations: Above Target 2026-2028 Expectations
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Median Inflation Expectation 2026 | 5.01% | Central bank weekly survey of market analysts |
| Median Inflation Expectation 2027 | 4.28% | Policy-relevant inflation expectation |
| Median Selic Expectation end-2026 | 13.75% | Central bank survey median policy rate expectation |
| Real GDP Growth Expectation 2026 | 1.92% | Median expectation from BCB weekly survey (vs 1.95% previous week) |
| BRL/USD Expectation year-end 2026 | 5.2 BRL/USD | Median exchange rate expectation (5.20 a week ago) |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Median Inflation Expectation 2026: 5.01 % (2026) · Source: BCB
- Median Inflation Expectation 2027: 4.28 % (2027) · Source: BCB
- Median Selic Expectation end-2026: 13.75 % (End-2026) · Source: BCB
- Real GDP Growth Expectation 2026: 1.92 % (2026) · Source: BCB
- BRL/USD Expectation year-end 2026: 5.2 BRL/USD (Year-end 2026) · Source: BCB
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