Report published September 29, 2026

Brazil: Resilient Labor Market, Firm Sequential Real Wage Growth and Flat Employment – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs · September 29, 2026

Brazil's unemployment rate printed at 5.3% in August, holding near 15-year lows and below the NAIRU range. While real wages accelerated, flat sequential employment growth indicates the labor market may be beginning to cool alongside broader economic deceleration.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Brazil's national unemployment rate reached 5.3% in August (5.4% seasonally adjusted), holding near record lows and below NAIRU estimates.
2.Real wage momentum strengthened, with real average income expanding 3.7% yoy and the aggregate real wage bill growing 4.8% yoy.
3.Sequential employment growth flattened in August (0% mom sa), showing initial tentative signs that labor tightness is gradually cooling alongside an economic slowdown.

KEY NUMBERS (Aug):
DETAILS:
Tight Below-NAIRU Unemployment Rate; Solid Real Wage Growth
Unemployment Rate Below the NAIRU Range; Declining Labor Force Underutilization
Active Labor Force and Employment vs. Trend; Moderating Employment Growth

Report data

Tight Below-NAIRU Unemployment Rate; Solid Real Wage Growth

Metric	Estimate	Context
National Unemployment Rate	5.3%	In line with consensus (5.3%) and GS forecast (5.3%), down from 5.6% a year ago
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate	5.4%	Very near the lowest level in more than 15 years and below NAIRU range
Employment Growth	1.0 % yoy	Compared to 0.9% yoy (0.2% mom sa) in July
Average Real Income Growth	3.7 % yoy	Accelerated from 3.3% yoy in July
Real Wage Bill Growth	4.8 % yoy	Accelerated from 4.2% yoy in July