Report published September 1, 2026
Goldman Sachs: Brazil 2Q26 Real GDP Growth Moderates to 0.48% QoQ Amid Softening Domestic Demand
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- September 1, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Alberto Ramos
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Brazil's real GDP grew 0.48% qoq sa (2.0% yoy) in 2Q2026, decelerating from 1.07% qoq sa in 1Q26 amid flat domestic demand and retrenching private consumption. Goldman Sachs maintains its full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast at 2.0%, with statistical carry-over tracking at 1.8%.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Brazil's real GDP grew 0.48% qoq sa (2.0% yoy) in 2Q2026, moderating sharply from 1.07% qoq sa in 1Q26 but slightly beating consensus expectations of 0.4% qoq sa.
- 2.Final domestic demand stalled at 0% qoq sa, dragged down by an unexpected 0.4% qoq sa contraction in household consumption, while inventory accumulation added 100bp to quarterly growth.
- 3.On the supply side, upside surprises in agriculture and livestock (+2.8% qoq sa) and mining (+3.4% qoq sa) helped offset softer services (+0.2% qoq sa) and contractions in manufacturing, construction, and utilities.
Table of Contents
- KEY FIGURES:
- MAIN POINTS:
- Brazil - Real GDP Growth
- Brazil - Contribution to QoQ Growth (%)
- Brazil - Contribution to YoY Growth (%)
- Real GDP and Domestic Demand Growth Momentum Softened During 2Q26
- Flat Domestic Demand in 2Q26
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Brazil - Real GDP Growth
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP Growth (2Q2026) | 0.48% | Quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted real GDP growth in Brazil, slowing from 1.07% in 1Q26 |
| Real GDP Growth (YoY) | 2.0% | Year-over-year real GDP growth, compared to 1.8% in 1Q26 and consensus of 1.9% |
| Household Consumption Growth (QoQ sa) | -0.4% | Unexpected sequential decline in household consumption, easing from 0.8% in 1Q26 |
| Net Exports Contribution to QoQ Growth | -51 bps | Subtracted from sequential GDP growth in 2Q26 |
| Change in Inventories Contribution to QoQ Growth | 100 bps | Estimated contribution of inventory accumulation to sequential 2Q26 GDP growth |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Real GDP Growth (2Q2026): 0.48 % (2Q2026) · Source: IBGE
- Real GDP Growth (YoY): 2.0 % (2Q2026) · Source: IBGE
- Household Consumption Growth (QoQ sa): -0.4 % (2Q2026) · Source: IBGE
- Net Exports Contribution to QoQ Growth: -51 bps (2Q2026) · Source: IBGE
- Change in Inventories Contribution to QoQ Growth: 100 bps (2Q2026) · Source: IBGE
Themes
Regions
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