Report published August 26, 2026
Brazil Macro Report: August IPCA-15 Deflation vs. Persistent Core Services
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 26, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Alberto Ramos
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Brazil's August IPCA-15 printed at -0.40% m/m (4.24% y/y), below consensus due to declines in airfares and administered prices. However, core services accelerated to 0.50% m/m, indicating persistent underlying price pressures that constrain the central bank's room for rate cuts.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Brazil's August IPCA-15 headline inflation printed at -0.40% m/m (4.24% y/y), surprising to the downside versus consensus (-0.32%) due to falling airfares, food-at-home, and regulated fuel/electricity prices.
- 2.Despite headline moderation, underlying services and core pressures remain intense, with core services accelerating to 0.50% m/m (above 0.43% consensus) and labor-intensive services running at an elevated 6.8% 3-mma sa.
- 3.Persistent core-services inflation, unanchored inflation expectations, a positive output gap, and fiscal/policy uncertainty leave limited room for central bank monetary policy rate cuts.
Table of Contents
- KEY NUMBERS (Aug):
- DETAILS:
- High Administered Prices Inflation
- Core and Services Inflationary Pressures Remain High
- High and Sticky Non Tradables Inflation
- High Food Away from Home Inflation
- Services Inflation
- IPCA Contribution to %YoY Inflation
- Brazil: Core and Labor Intensive Services Subcomponents
- Brazil: Slack and Inertia Sensitive Subcomponents
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Brazil: Inflation Dynamics Since 2010
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| IPCA-15 Headline Inflation (MoM) | -0.4% | Printed below consensus (-0.32%) and GS expectation (-0.31%). |
| IPCA-15 Headline Inflation (YoY) | 4.24% | Decelerated from 4.52% yoy in July IPCA-15. |
| Core Services Inflation (MoM) | 0.5% | Accelerated vs 0.30% in July and above consensus of 0.43%. |
| Core Inflation (Average of 5 measures, YoY) | 4.26% | Pushed 12-month rate down from 4.35% in July. |
| Electricity Tariffs (MoM) | -6.25% | Driven by the once-off Itaipu bonus payment. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- IPCA-15 Headline Inflation (MoM): -0.4 % (2026-08) · Source: IBGE
- IPCA-15 Headline Inflation (YoY): 4.24 % (2026-08) · Source: IBGE
- Core Services Inflation (MoM): 0.5 % (2026-08) · Source: IBGE
- Core Inflation (Average of 5 measures, YoY): 4.26 % (2026-08) · Source: IBGE
- Electricity Tariffs (MoM): -6.25 % (2026-08) · Source: IBGE
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