Report published September 14, 2026

Brazil: Lower 2026/27 Growth Expectations and Unchanged Selic Path

Goldman Sachs · September 14, 2026

The Central Bank of Brazil's weekly market survey showed lower 2026/27 GDP growth expectations alongside an unchanged Selic rate path. Medium-term inflation expectations remain well above the 3.0% target while fiscal deficit projections continue to reflect low credibility in the government's fiscal framework.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Inflation expectations remain well above the 3.0% target, with 2026 dropping 10bp to 4.90% but 2027 rising 1bp to 4.30%.
2.Median expectations for the Selic policy rate remain unchanged at 13.75% for end-2026, 12.00% for 2027, and 10.50% for 2028.
3.Real GDP growth expectations softened slightly to 1.89% for 2026 (-4bp) and 1.45% for 2027 (-5bp).

Brazil: Lower 2026/27 Growth Expectations; Unchanged Selic Path (Ramos)
DETAILS:
Median Inflation Expectations: Above Target 2026-2028 Expectations
12-Month Ahead Inflation Expectations
Median Selic Policy Rate Expectations
Median Real GDP Growth Expectations
Median Primary Fiscal Balance Expectations
Median Overall Fiscal Balance Expectations

Report data

Median Inflation Expectations: Above Target 2026-2028 Expectations

Metric	Estimate	Context
2026 Median Inflation Expectation	4.9%	Market consensus expectation for 2026 inflation, declining by 10bp from the prior week.
2027 Median Inflation Expectation	4.3%	Market consensus expectation for policy-relevant 2027 inflation, rising by 1bp.
End-2026 Selic Rate Expectation	13.75%	Median market expectation for the Selic policy rate at end-2026.
2026 Real GDP Growth Expectation	1.89%	Expectation for real GDP growth tracking at 1.89% vs 1.93% a week ago.
2027 Real GDP Growth Expectation	1.45%	Expectation for real GDP growth tracking at 1.45% vs 1.50% a week ago.