Report published September 25, 2026
Brazil: Higher Than Expected Sept IPCA-15; Accelerating Core and Services Momentum – Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs · September 25, 2026
Brazil's September IPCA-15 printed at 0.70% MoM (4.47% YoY), substantially exceeding consensus forecasts of 0.55% due to broad-based price increases across services and administered goods. Accelerating core and labor-intensive services momentum reinforces the need for a conservative monetary policy calibration with limited scope for rate cuts.
Read the remaining 4 pages
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.September IPCA-15 headline inflation accelerated to 0.70% MoM (4.47% YoY), meaningfully topping consensus expectations of 0.55% MoM.
- 2.Services inflation surged to 0.59% MoM (6.00% YoY), driven by airfares and broad-based increases across transportation, lodging, and communications.
- 3.Inflation momentum deteriorated across core and services, with labor-intensive services running at a high 7.1% annualized 3-month moving average.
Table of Contents
- High Administered Prices Inflation; Core and Services Inflationary Pressures Remain High
- High and Sticky Non Tradables Inflation; High Food Away from Home Inflation
- High Services Inflation Momentum; Intense and Sustained Pressure on Labor-Intensive Services
- IPCA-15: Contribution to %YoY Inflation
- High Core and Labor Intensive Services Inflation; Intense and Persistent Pressure on Slack and Inertia Sensitive Services
Report data
Brazil: Inflation Dynamics Since 2010
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| IPCA-15 Headline Inflation | 0.70 % mom | Headline inflation printed above consensus expectation of 0.55% and GS forecast of 0.57%. |
| IPCA-15 Headline Inflation YoY | 4.47 % yoy | Annual IPCA-15 accelerated from 4.24% YoY in August. |
| Core Inflation (average of five measures) | 0.34 % mom | Average of five measures printed above consensus of 0.28%, pushing 12-month rate to 4.42%. |
| Services Inflation | 0.59 % mom | Services printed well above consensus of 0.27%, lifting the annual rate to 6.00%. |
| Core Services Inflation | 0.28 % mom | Core services eased from 0.50% in August and printed in line with consensus of 0.27%. |
Access the full report
And others from the leading tier 1 banks.
Free account: read previews and a daily allowance of full reports. Pro removes the daily limit.
Authors / Editors
Related Reports
Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart: MXAPJ Fell Another 1%, as Higher Oil Prices and US Rates Continued to Drive Outflows and Pressure
October 10, 2026
China Weekly Kickstart: MXCN Gained 1% While A-Shares Lost 1%
October 10, 2026
TOPIX Next-Generation Review: Broad Reshuffle, Significant Flow Implications
October 9, 2026
China Property Weekly Wrap: Week 40 Wrap - Primary Volume Inspiring Entering the "Silver" October
October 9, 2026
Golden Week Wrap-Up: Muted Domestic but Solid Outbound Travel Demand
October 9, 2026