Report published September 28, 2026

Brazil: Higher 2026/27 Inflation and Lower Growth Expectations; Unchanged Selic Path – Goldman Sachs Research

Goldman Sachs · September 28, 2026

The Central Bank of Brazil's weekly market survey showed median inflation expectations rising to 4.99% for 2026 and 4.31% for 2027, well above the 3.0% target. Growth projections edged lower, while Selic policy rate expectations held steady at 13.50% for 2026 and 12.00% for 2027.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Median inflation expectations for 2026 rose 7bp to 4.99% and for 2027 rose 1bp to 4.31%, remaining well above the 3.0% target.
2.Median Selic policy rate expectations remained unchanged at 13.50% for end-2026, 12.00% for end-2027, and 10.50% for end-2028.
3.Real GDP growth expectations softened by 2bp for both 2026 (to 1.86%) and 2027 (to 1.41%).

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Key figures extracted from this report

Metric	Estimate	Context
Median Inflation Expectation	4.99%	Market consensus from Central Bank of Brazil weekly survey
Median Inflation Expectation	4.31%	Market consensus for policy-relevant year, compared to 3.0% target
Median Selic Policy Rate Expectation	13.50%	End-of-year expected policy rate
Median Selic Policy Rate Expectation	12.00%	End-of-year expected policy rate
Real GDP Growth Expectation	1.86%	Down from 1.88% a week prior