Report published October 1, 2026

Brazil: Consumer & Business Confidence Softened Further in Sept – Goldman Sachs Economic Research

Goldman Sachs · October 1, 2026

Brazilian business and consumer sentiment softened further in September 2026, with the FGV composite business confidence index dropping 1.2 points to 89.3 and consumer confidence touching 84.2, its lowest level since November 2022. Deterioration was broad-based across manufacturing, construction, retail, and services, leaving all indicators firmly in pessimistic territory below 100.

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Key Takeaways

1.FGV's composite business confidence fell 1.2 points in September to 89.3 (down 3.4 points in 3Q26), marked by declines in both current conditions and expectations.
2.Business confidence weakness was broad-based across all key sectors, falling in retail/commerce (-2.9pt to 81.3), manufacturing (-2.4pt to 91.3), construction (-1.4pt to 90.5), and services (-0.9pt to 88.1).
3.FGV's consumer confidence index declined by 0.5 points to 84.2, marking its lowest reading since November 2022, primarily dragged down by deteriorating expectations.

DETAILS:
Eroding Consumer Confidence
Aggregate Business Confidence Indicator

Report data

Aggregate Business Confidence Indicator: Retail, Services, Manufacturing, Construction

Metric	Estimate	Context
FGV Composite Business Confidence Index	89.3 index points	Declined 1.2pt month-over-month in September, following 1.5pt and 0.7pt declines in July and August, down 3.4pt during 3Q26.
FGV Consumer Confidence Index	84.2 index points	Reached lowest level since November 2022, after declines of 0.1, 0.4, and 3.6 points in June, July, and August.
Consumer Confidence Expectations Index	85.2 index points	Reached lowest level since May 2022.
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions Index	84.0 index points	Upticked 0.2pt following a 0.6pt drop in August.
Manufacturing Confidence Index	91.3 index points	Deteriorated by 2.4pt in September.