Report published September 24, 2026

Brazil 3Q26 MPR: Above-Target Inflation Forecasts; Weaker 2026/27 Growth – Goldman Sachs Research

Goldman Sachs · September 24, 2026

The Central Bank of Brazil's 3Q26 Monetary Policy Report maintains above-target conditional inflation forecasts through the relevant policy horizon (3.1% in 2Q28) while downgrading 2026 GDP growth to 1.8%. Consequently, Goldman Sachs sees limited near-term policy room for meaningful Selic rate cuts.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The BCB's Reference Scenario conditional inflation projections remain above the 3.0% target across the 6-quarter relevant horizon (3.1% in 2Q28) and into 1Q29 (3.1%).
2.Central bank forecasts for real GDP growth were revised downward to 1.8% for 2026 (from 2.0%) and introduced at 1.4% for 2027.
3.Near-term policy room for significant Selic cuts is limited due to above-target inflation projections, unanchored expectations, and skewed upside risks.

DETAILS
Monetary Policy Report (MPR) - Projected Inflation Path

Report data

Monetary Policy Report (MPR) - Projected Inflation Path

Metric	Estimate	Context
Real GDP Growth Forecast (2026)	1.8%	Downgraded from 2.0% in the previous report.
Real GDP Growth Forecast (2027)	1.4%	Disclosed for the first time by the central bank.
Neutral Real Interest Rate (r*)	5.0%	Estimated real neutral interest rate remained unchanged from the 1Q MPR.
Projected Headline IPCA Inflation (2Q28)	3.1%	Relevant horizon forecast for November and December Copom meetings, down from 3.2% in June MPR.
Probability Inflation Exceeds 4.5% Upper Target Band (2026)	90.0%	Rose from 79% in the 2Q MPR under the Reference Scenario.