Report published September 14, 2026
Goldman Sachs BoE Preview: Holding at 3.75% in September, Hiking to 4.00% in November
Goldman Sachs · September 14, 2026
Goldman Sachs expects the Bank of England to maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75% at its 17 September meeting before hiking 25bp to 4.0% in November due to rising energy price pressures. The MPC is also expected to moderate its annual QT pace to £50bn.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Bank of England's MPC is expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% at its 17 September meeting via a 6-3 vote split, with risks of a 5-4 vote.
- 2.Goldman Sachs has materially raised its UK inflation forecast to peak at 3.9% in 2027Q1 due to elevated energy prices, leading them to now forecast a 25bp rate hike to 4.00% in November.
- 3.The annual QT pace is expected to be reduced from £70bn to £50bn over the next 12 months, comprising £31bn in redemptions and £19bn in active sales.
Table of Contents
- BoE Preview—Holding in September, Hiking in November
- We Expect a 6-3 Vote for a Hold with Risks of a 5-4
- Communications Likely to Note Rising Upside Risks
- Annual QT Review Likely to See Pace of Stock Reduction Reduced to £50bn
- We Significantly Increase Our Inflation Estimates and Now Expect a November Hike
- European Economics Team
Report data
Exhibit 4: Bailey Indicated Upside Risks to the Rate Path but Did Not Signal an Immediate Policy Tightening
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Bank Rate Current Level | 3.75% | Current BoE policy rate expected to be maintained at the September meeting |
| Bank Rate Projected November Level | 4.0% | Goldman Sachs revised baseline forecast for the November MPC meeting |
| Peak Headline CPI Forecast | 3.9% | Headline inflation projection raised due to higher wholesale energy prices |
| Annual QT Stock Reduction Target | 50 GBP billion | Annual balance sheet reduction composed of £31bn redemptions and £19bn active gilt sales |
| Terminal Bank Rate Forecast | 3.25% | Expected terminal policy rate reached after quarterly cuts starting in 2027Q4 |
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