Report published August 28, 2026
Goldman Sachs Analysis: BLS Estimates 79k Downward Revision to US Payroll Employment
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 28, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Jan Hatzius, David Mericle, Alec Phillips, Ronnie Walker, Elsie Peng, Pierfrancesco Mei, Jessica Rindels, Abhay Duggirala
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
The BLS issued a preliminary benchmark revision of -79k to nonfarm payroll growth for April 2025–March 2026, below consensus expectations. Goldman Sachs anticipates this will be revised upward in the final release, noting that current labor market conditions remain solid.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The BLS reported a preliminary benchmark revision to US payrolls of -79k (-7k jobs/month) for April 2025–March 2026, lower than GS (+50k to +450k) and consensus (+138k) expectations.
- 2.Goldman Sachs expects the preliminary downward revision to be revised upward in the final release because QCEW source data is consistently revised higher and preliminary estimates have trailed final revisions by ~100k on average over the past six years.
- 3.The revisions offer limited insight into current labor market conditions due to their historical time horizon and lack of impact on household survey indicators like the unemployment rate; overall labor conditions remain solid.
Table of Contents
- KEY NUMBERS:
- MAIN POINTS:
- Disclosure Appendix
- Reg AC
- Disclosures
- Global product; distributing entities
- General disclosures
Report data
Preliminary vs. Final Benchmark Revision History
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Preliminary benchmark revision to payroll growth | -79.0 thousands of jobs (k) | Preliminary BLS estimate vs. GS +50k to +450k, consensus +138k, last -911k |
| Implied revised average monthly payroll growth | 18.0 k jobs/month | Taken at face value vs. 25k jobs/month currently reported |
| Average preliminary to final benchmark revision gap | 100.0 thousands of jobs (k) | Preliminary estimate has been below the final revision by roughly 100k on average |
Document Preview
Access the Full Report
Get unlimited access to institutional research reports. Create an account to get started.
Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Preliminary benchmark revision to payroll growth: -79.0 thousands of jobs (k) (April 2025 - March 2026) · Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
- Implied revised average monthly payroll growth: 18.0 k jobs/month (April 2025 - March 2026) · Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
- Average preliminary to final benchmark revision gap: 100.0 thousands of jobs (k) (Past 6 years) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Department of Labor
Themes
Regions
Related Reports
Americas Consumer Cyclicals: 2027 Spending Outlook
September 9, 2026
China: Both CPI and PPI Inflation Picked Up in August
September 9, 2026
Academy Sports & Outdoors Inc.: First Take: 2Q Earnings Beat; FY26 EPS Guidance Raised
September 9, 2026
Asian Equity Market Daily Update
September 9, 2026
Korea: Attractive Shareholder Returns Backed by Strong Fundamentals and Policy Drivers
September 9, 2026