Biscuits and Cookies: Parallels in the UK and US Macro Outlooks

Goldman Sachs forecasts the UK and US economies to align cyclically in 2026 with picking up growth, softening labor markets, and cooling inflation. However, the US maintains a stronger long-term growth outlook driven by higher productivity and AI adoption.

Key Takeaways

• 1.UK and US economies are expected to converge in 2026 across growth, labor market slack, inflation cooling, and monetary policy normalization.
• 2.Significant structural differences persist, including more acute downside labor risks in the UK, diverging fiscal paths, and the US maintaining superior long-term growth potential due to AI and productivity.

Table of Contents

• Biscuits and Cookies? Parallels in the 2026 UK and US Macro Outlooks
• The European Economics Team
• Disclosure Appendix

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