Report published September 6, 2026

Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Report: 10 High-Level Biopharma Themes for Fall 2026

Goldman Sachs · September 6, 2026

Goldman Sachs remains selectively constructive on large-cap biopharma entering fall 2026, supported by ~18% YTD outperformance, positive earnings revisions, and innovation in cancer vaccines. Key favored names into year-end include JNJ, LLY, AMGN, RPRX, MRK, TEVA, VRTX, AZN, and Bayer, while Novartis, BMY, and PFE face higher-risk catalyst paths.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Large-cap biopharma enters the fall on solid footing, outperforming the S&P 500 YTD (~18% vs. 13%) on strong execution, positive revisions, disruptive oncology innovation, and M&A tailwinds, though selectivity remains paramount.
2.US large-cap biopharma has broadly re-rated while European pharma performance has been uneven due to clinical catalyst setbacks and patent expiration concerns.
3.Top picks into the balance of 2026 include JNJ, LLY, AMGN, and RPRX on upward revisions, MRK, TEVA, and VRTX on event paths, AZN on valuation disconnect, and Bayer as a turnaround story.

10 High-Level Themes In Focus Exiting the Summer
1. Top Down Considerations.
2. Valuation Considerations.
3. Positioning Considerations.
4. 3Q26 Earnings.
5. Key Clinical Events.
6. Cancer Vaccines.
7. M&A Considerations.
8. Midterm Election Considerations.
9. FDA Considerations.
10. China Theme.
Charts We Are Watching

Report data

Exhibit 5: Global Pharma: Consensus Implied Post-2030 TGR Reflected at Current Prices

Metric	Estimate	Context
S&P 500 Pharma Index YTD Return	18.0%	Outperformed S&P 500's +13% following a sustained rally starting late last year.
Merck (MRK) YTD Return	43.0%	Best YTD performer among large-cap biopharma on growing appreciation of post-LOE revenue trajectory.
Large-cap Biopharma P/E Discount to S&P 500	-9.0%	Current P/E discount of ~-9% compares to historical average 2% premium.
2Q26 Revenue Beat Rate	100.0%	100% of large-cap biopharma companies beat revenue estimates vs. 65% trailing 4-quarter average.
Average Estimate Revisions	1.7%	Topline beats and guidance increases led to positive estimate revisions averaging 1.7% across the group.