Report published September 29, 2026
Australia: RBA's Bullock: Has the RBA "Done Enough?" – Goldman Sachs Research
Goldman Sachs · September 29, 2026
RBA Governor Bullock framed the latest rate hike around upside risks from rising fuel costs, AI investment, and domestic capacity pressures while highlighting the 12–18 month transmission lags of the four hikes implemented so far. Goldman Sachs maintains a base case that policy will remain on hold until easing starts in 2H2027, but warns an upside inflation print could prompt a further hike as early as November.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Governor Bullock framed the RBA's rate increase against three upside inflation risks: prolonged Middle East conflict and fuel prices, the AI boom, and higher-than-expected capacity pressures.
- 2.The RBA press conference was assessed as incrementally less hawkish than the accompanying statement, with the Governor emphasizing policy transmission lags of 12 to 18 months.
- 3.Goldman Sachs' base case expects the RBA to hold the cash rate until an easing cycle begins in 2H2027, though an additional hike as soon as November remains a material risk if inflation surprises to the upside.
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| RBA Rate Hikes to Date | 4.0 hikes | Cumulative interest rate increases enacted by the RBA in the cycle |
| Underlying Inflation Rate | 3.5% | Annualized or prevailing underlying inflation rate over the preceding six months |
| Monetary Policy Transmission Lag | 12-18 months | Estimated duration for RBA cash rate increases to fully transmit through the economy |
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