Report published September 3, 2026
Goldman Sachs: Australia & NZ Views — RBA Tightening into Deeper Housing Drag
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- September 3, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Andrew Boak, Will Maher, Oscar To
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Goldman Sachs forecasts the RBA will raise its cash rate by 25bp in November 2026 to 4.60% in response to elevated July CPI inflation. However, an accelerating housing downturn—with prices now projected to fall 9% peak-to-trough—is expected to drag GDP growth down to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Goldman Sachs expects the RBA to deliver a final 25bp rate hike in November 2026 to 4.60% (with a 45% probability of a September hike) due to stronger-than-expected July CPI inflation.
- 2.Australian house prices are now forecast to decline by 9% peak-to-trough (down from -5% previously), subtracting 130bp from consumer spending growth over the next 12 months.
- 3.Australia's GDP growth forecasts are lowered to 1.9% for 2026 and 1.8% for 2027, while the peak unemployment rate forecast is raised to 4.8% in 2Q2027.
Table of Contents
- Australia & NZ Views: RBA To Tighten Into Deeper Housing Drag
- The Australia and NZ Economics Team
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Exhibit 1: We now expect house prices to fall by a historically large 9% peak-to-trough
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| RBA Cash Rate Forecast | 4.60% | Forecast terminal cash rate after one final hike |
| Australian Dwelling Prices Peak-to-Trough Change | -9% | Revised down from prior expectation of -5% |
| Australia GDP Growth Forecast (2026) | 1.9% | Lowered from 2.0% |
| Australia GDP Growth Forecast (2027) | 1.8% | Lowered from 2.1% |
| Australia Cyclical Peak Unemployment Rate | 4.8% | Peak unemployment rate forecast |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- RBA Cash Rate Forecast: 4.60 % (November 2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Australian Dwelling Prices Peak-to-Trough Change: -9 % (March 2026 to mid-2027) · Source: Cotality, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Australia GDP Growth Forecast (2026): 1.9 % (2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Australia GDP Growth Forecast (2027): 1.8 % (2027) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Australia Cyclical Peak Unemployment Rate: 4.8 % (2Q2027) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Themes
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