Report published August 26, 2026
Australia Monthly CPI Surprise: Goldman Sachs Shifts to November RBA Rate Hike
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 26, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Andrew Boak, CFA, Will Maher, Oscar To
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Australia's July monthly CPI surprised to the upside with headline inflation rising 1.0% mom (3.5% yoy) and trimmed mean inflation steady at 3.6% yoy. Consequently, Goldman Sachs revised its 3Q2026 trimmed mean forecast up to 0.93% qoq and now expects the RBA to hike rates by 25bp to 4.60% in November.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Australia's July monthly headline CPI rose +1.0% mom (+3.5% yoy) and trimmed mean CPI rose +0.5% mom (+3.6% yoy), exceeding consensus and Goldman Sachs estimates.
- 2.Goldman Sachs upgrades its 3Q2026 trimmed mean inflation forecast to 0.93% qoq and now forecasts a 25bp RBA rate hike in November to 4.60%, with material risk of an earlier hike in September.
- 3.Inflation broadened across categories, driven by fuel (+7.5% mom), domestic holiday travel (+6.2% mom), market services ex-travel (accelerating to +0.8% mom), and consumer durables (+1.9% mom).
Table of Contents
- Key numbers
- Main points
- Exhibit 1: Monthly trimmed mean inflation rose materially in July
- Exhibit 2: Market services inflation (ex travel) accelerated sharply in July
- Exhibit 3: The breadth of components with prices growing above an annualised pace of 3% has increased
- Exhibit 4: Key data
- The Australia and NZ Economics Team
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Exhibit 4: Key data
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly Headline CPI | 1.0 % mom | Australia July headline monthly inflation |
| Headline CPI | 3.5 % yoy | Australia July headline annual inflation, above GS (3.1%) and consensus (3.3%) |
| Monthly Trimmed Mean CPI | 0.5 % mom | ABS monthly trimmed mean core inflation measure |
| Trimmed Mean CPI | 3.6 % yoy | Australia July trimmed mean annual inflation |
| 3Q2026 Trimmed Mean CPI Forecast | 0.93 % qoq | Goldman Sachs upgraded quarterly trimmed mean inflation forecast |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Monthly Headline CPI: 1.0 % mom (2026-07) · Source: ABS
- Headline CPI: 3.5 % yoy (2026-07) · Source: ABS
- Monthly Trimmed Mean CPI: 0.5 % mom (2026-07) · Source: ABS
- Trimmed Mean CPI: 3.6 % yoy (2026-07) · Source: ABS
- 3Q2026 Trimmed Mean CPI Forecast: 0.93 % qoq (3Q2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Themes
Regions
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