Report published October 1, 2026
Goldman Sachs: Australia: Cotality House Prices: Price Falls Broaden Further in September
Goldman Sachs · October 1, 2026
Australian capital-city dwelling prices declined 1.2% mom in September, leaving them 6.4% below their March 2026 peak as declines broadened across nearly all major markets. Previously resilient mid-sized capitals such as Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth posted significant drops, while rental growth moderated to 0.3% mom.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Australian capital-city dwelling prices declined 1.2% mom in September, bringing cumulative declines to 6.4% below the March 2026 peak.
- 2.Price falls broadened across all capital cities except Darwin, with previously resilient mid-sized capitals Brisbane (-1.5% mom), Adelaide (-1.3% mom), and Perth (-1.2% mom) recording sharp falls.
- 3.Rental market conditions softened slightly as rents growth slowed to 0.3% mom (5.5% yoy), the lowest monthly increase since May 2025, and vacancy rates ticked up to 2.0%.
Table of Contents
- Exhibit 1: Recent months' capital-city dwelling prices have continued to be revised lower
- Exhibit 2: Capital city house prices have fallen to around mid-2025 levels
- Exhibit 3: Prices falls have been largest in Sydney and Melbourne
- Exhibit 4: Key data
Report data
Exhibit 4: Key data
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Cotality Capital City Dwelling Prices (8-city) | -1.2% | Month-over-month change in Australian combined capital city dwelling prices |
| Cotality Capital City Dwelling Prices (8-city) | -1.8% | Year-over-year change in Australian combined capital city dwelling prices |
| Capital City Dwelling Prices peak-to-trough decline | -6.4% | Decline from the March 2026 peak across Australian capital-city dwelling prices |
| Sydney Dwelling Prices change from peak | -8.6% | Decline from February 2026 peak in Sydney dwelling prices |
| Brisbane Dwelling Prices | -1.5% | Largest monthly decline among all capital cities in September |
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