Report published September 2, 2026
Australia 2Q2026 GDP: Resilient Growth and RBA Monetary Policy Outlook
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- September 2, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Andrew Boak, Will Maher, Oscar To
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Australian 2Q2026 GDP expanded 0.4% qoq (2.1% yoy), coming in slightly above market consensus and the RBA's August forecasts. Domestic demand remained firm, driven by household spending and dwelling construction, keeping risks tilted toward an RBA rate hike.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Australian 2Q2026 GDP grew 0.4% qoq (2.1% yoy), exceeding consensus and the RBA's August forecast of 1.9% yoy.
- 2.Domestic demand remained resilient, rising 0.3% qoq (3.1% yoy), supported by stable household consumption and dwelling investment.
- 3.Elevated wage measures and growth running slightly above potential tilt the balance of risks towards a potential RBA rate hike in September (45% probability), though Goldman Sachs' base case remains a 25bp hike in November to 4.60%.
Table of Contents
- Australia: 2Q2026 GDP: Resilient
- Key Numbers
- Main Points
- Exhibit 6: Key data
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Exhibit 6: Key data
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP Growth (quarter-on-quarter) | 0.4% | Above consensus (0.3% qoq) and GS forecast (0.2% qoq) |
| Real GDP Growth (year-on-year) | 2.1% | 20bp above RBA's August forecast of 1.9% yoy |
| Household Consumption Growth | 0.4% | In line with Goldman Sachs forecast |
| Household Saving Ratio | 6.5% | Gross disposable income rose 1.1% qoq, outpacing spending |
| Dwelling Investment Growth | 1.6% | Supported by the elevated pipeline of existing work |
Document Preview
Access the Full Report
Get unlimited access to institutional research reports. Create an account to get started.
Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Real GDP Growth (quarter-on-quarter): 0.4 % (2Q2026) · Source: ABS
- Real GDP Growth (year-on-year): 2.1 % (2Q2026) · Source: ABS
- Household Consumption Growth: 0.4 % (2Q2026) · Source: ABS
- Household Saving Ratio: 6.5 % (2Q2026) · Source: ABS
- Dwelling Investment Growth: 1.6 % (2Q2026) · Source: ABS
Themes
Regions
Related Reports
Academy Sports & Outdoors Inc.: First Take: 2Q Earnings Beat; FY26 EPS Guidance Raised
September 9, 2026
Global Markets Daily: AI Funding Needs and Strong Demand Fuel Record Convertible Supply
September 9, 2026
Taiwan: Stronger-Than-Expected Rebound in August Exports, Led by Tech
September 9, 2026
Westgold Resources: Refreshed 3-Year Outlook
September 9, 2026
Japan: September Reuters Tankan: Semiconductor-Related Demand Contributes to Improvement in Manufacturers' and Non-Manufacturers'
September 9, 2026