Report published September 1, 2026
Japan Consumer Sentiment Improves for Fourth Consecutive Month: Goldman Sachs Report
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- September 1, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 15, 2026
Authors / editors: Yuriko Tanaka (Lead Author), Akira Otani (Japan Economics Team), Tomohiro Ota (Japan Economics Team)
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Japan's Consumer Sentiment Index rose 0.6 points month-over-month to 35.5 in August, beating consensus expectations. Meanwhile, 1-year forward inflation expectations dropped from 4.55% to 4.15% as consumers factored in the government's planned food consumption tax cut from 8% to 1%.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Japan's Consumer Sentiment Index rose +0.6 points month-over-month to 35.5 in August, slightly beating consensus (+0.4 points) and marking its fourth consecutive monthly improvement.
- 2.Despite recent gains, consumer sentiment remains below pre-Middle East disruption levels (38.6 average in Jan-Feb 2026), with income growth and employment subcomponents softening in August.
- 3.One-year-ahead expected inflation fell to 4.15% from 4.55% in July as households priced in the planned food consumption tax cut from 8% to 1%, though the decline remains modest relative to the estimated -1.5 pp direct price impact.
Table of Contents
- JP MAP SCORE:
- KEY NUMBERS:
- August Consumer Sentiment Index Improves for Fourth Consecutive Month:
- Price expectations one year ahead decline, factoring in consumption tax cut:
- Consumer Confidence and Inflation Outlook 1yr Out
- The Japan Economics Team
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Consumer Confidence and Inflation Outlook 1yr Out — as of August 15, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 35.5 index points | Actual August reading versus Bloomberg consensus of 35.3 and July level of 34.9 |
| Expected Inflation Rate 1-Year Ahead | 4.15% | Goldman Sachs estimate of one-year-ahead inflation expectations, down from 4.55% in July |
| Food Consumption Tax Rate | 1% | Government policy decision to lower food consumption tax from current 8% |
| Estimated downward effect of food consumption tax cut on CPI | -1.5 pp | Goldman Sachs estimated downward effect on consumer prices |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Consumer Confidence Index: 35.5 index points (August 2026) · Source: Cabinet Office
- Expected Inflation Rate 1-Year Ahead: 4.15 % (August 2026) · Source: Cabinet Office / Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Food Consumption Tax Rate: 1 % (Starting April next year)
- Estimated downward effect of food consumption tax cut on CPI: -1.5 pp (Effective period) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Themes
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