Report published August 25, 2026
AstraZeneca: Previewing Tozorakimab Phase 3 COPD Data Ahead of ERS
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 25, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 24, 2026
Authors / editors: Rajan Sharma (Lead Analyst), James Quigley (Analyst), Max Da, Ph.D. (Analyst), Avantika B (Contributing Author), Shyam Kotadia (Contributing Author), Theodora Rowe Beadle (Contributing Author)
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Goldman Sachs previews AstraZeneca's upcoming Phase 3 tozorakimab (IL-33 antibody) COPD data presentation at ERS on September 8, highlighting its multi-blockbuster potential across both high- and low-eosinophil patient populations. The analysts maintain a Buy rating with a 12-month price target of 16,300p ($216), seeing valuation as compelling ahead of an active catalyst pipeline.
Key Takeaways
- 1.AstraZeneca will present Phase 3 data for IL-33 antibody tozorakimab in COPD at the ERS Congress on September 8; Goldman Sachs views efficacy benchmarks as 0.66-0.70 rate ratio in eosinophil-high (>300) and 0.80 in eosinophil-low (<300) settings.
- 2.Tozorakimab represents a potential multi-blockbuster growth driver, with Goldman Sachs forecasting risk-adjusted peak sales of $4.0bn ($5.3bn unrisked) and accounting for ~17% of AZN's total revenue growth over 2026-2030.
- 3.The low-eosinophil population (<300) represents ~70% of the patient opportunity and has no approved biologic therapies, offering a major differentiation opportunity for tozorakimab.
Table of Contents
- AstraZeneca (AZN.L)
- Key Data
- GS Forecast
- GS Factor Profile
- Ratios & Valuation
- Growth & Margins (%)
- Price Performance
- Income Statement ($ mn)
- Balance Sheet ($ mn)
- Cash Flow ($ mn)
- What is the bar?
- Exhibit 1: Summary of clinical trials for IL-33 and ST2 antibodies for COPD
- Exhibit 2: Summary of data in COPD
- Exhibit 3: Tozorakimab upgrades offset Wainua downgrades in the outer years
- Valuation and risks
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Exhibit 3: Tozorakimab upgrades offset Wainua downgrades in the outer years — as of August 24, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 12-month Price Target (AZN.L) | 16300 pence | 12m Price Target for AstraZeneca London listing |
| 12-month Price Target (AZN) | 216.00 USD | 12m Price Target for AstraZeneca US listing |
| Tozorakimab Peak Sales (Unrisked) | 5.3 USD billion | GS non-risk-adjusted peak sales forecast vs consensus $4.3bn |
| Tozorakimab Peak Sales (Risk-Adjusted) | 4.0 USD billion | GS risk-adjusted peak sales forecast based on 75% POS |
| Total Revenue (2026E) | 63117.1 USD million | Goldman Sachs FY2026 revenue estimate for AstraZeneca |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- 12-month Price Target (AZN.L): 16300 pence (12 months) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- 12-month Price Target (AZN): 216.00 USD (12 months) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Tozorakimab Peak Sales (Unrisked): 5.3 USD billion (Peak) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Tozorakimab Peak Sales (Risk-Adjusted): 4.0 USD billion (Peak) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Total Revenue (2026E): 63117.1 USD million (FY 2026E) · Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates
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