Goldman Sachs: Assessing Sensitivity of EM European Equities to Natural Gas Shocks

Key Takeaways

• 1.European TTF natural gas prices have jumped >70% since early July to over EUR 70/MWh and could exceed EUR 100/MWh if Persian Gulf LNG export disruptions persist into winter.
• 2.EM European Financials (specifically in Hungary, Greece, and Poland) screen as most sensitive to TTF gas price spikes due to high macro beta, while trading at historical premium valuations.
• 3.Domestic cyclicals such as Türkiye Industrials and Poland Retail are vulnerable, whereas Commodity Cyclicals (Energy and Materials, notably in Saudi Arabia and the UAE) remain insulated or defensive.

Table of Contents

• Global Markets Daily: Assessing Sensitivity of EM European Equities to Natural Gas Shocks
• Assessing Sensitivity of EM European Equities to Natural Gas Shocks
• TRADE IDEAS
• Best Trade Ideas Across Assets

Report data

Exhibit 6: We rank sensitivities from our top-down modeling and episodic analysis; Financials across most markets screen as highly sensitive to TTF prices. Energy and Materials are less sensitive

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