Goldman Sachs Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart: Higher Oil and Interest Rates

Key Takeaways

• 1.Escalating Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude toward US$109/bbl, contributing to rising global bond yields and market-implied odds of a September Fed hike rising to 90%.
• 2.A sustained ~US$30/bbl oil price increase translates into a cumulative ~4% drag on MXAPJ earnings according to VAR impulse shock models.
• 3.EM Asia ex-China recorded foreign institutional investor (FII) net outflows of US$3.3bn, driven predominantly by selling in South Korea (-US$2.4bn) and Taiwan (-US$0.9bn).

Table of Contents

• Charts of the Week: Higher Oil and Interest Rates
• Charts of the Week: FTSE Global Equity Index Series Rebalancing Review and Flow Implications
• Charts of the Week: Korea & Taiwan Leveraged ETFs
• Asia Regional Market/Sector Summary & Scorecard
• Our Views, Allocations and Trade Ideas
• Goldman Sachs Global Macro Forecasts
• Upcoming Catalysts and Events
• Performance Snapshot: Regions, markets, commodities, FX and rates
• Performance Snapshot: Regional sectors, slices, themes factors
• Relative Performance of Asia Macro Slices
• Relative Performance of Asia Pacific Sectors
• Style Monitor: Long/Short Performance of Asia Styles
• Leaders & Laggards
• Earnings Revisions and Sentiment
• Consensus earnings revisions by market and sector (cumulative since Dec 2024)
• Valuations in Context
• MSCI market and local index valuations (based on bottom-up consensus median estimates)
• MXAPJ sector and macro slice valuations (based on bottom-up consensus median estimates)
• Fund Flows and Liquidity
• Equity Risk, Volatility and Correlation
• Policy Risk Indicators
• Tracking Regional Macroeconomic Indicators
• Macro Data Summary

Report data

Exhibit 4: Fed rate hikes have historically been negative for Asian equities, with North Asian markets (Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and Hong Kong) experiencing the greatest underperformance during recent tightening cycles — as of September 11, 2026.

Reports in this series

Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 12, 2026.

Part of the Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart series — view all 13 editions

Looking for the latest edition? Asia Pacific Weekly Kickstart MXAPJ fell another 1 , as higher oil prices and US rates continued to drive outflows and press... (Oct 10, 2026)

1. Jul 25Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart MXAPJ closed up 0.5 in a volatile week, as Greater China rebounded on moderating foreign outf...
2. Aug 8Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart MXAPJ fell 0.5 , dragged by Korea's seventh straight weekly decline amid heavy foreign outflow...
3. Aug 29Asia Pacific Weekly Kickstart MXAPJ closed flat ahead of Jackson Hole, with Tech hardware and Taiwan leading gains while Kor...
4. Sep 5Asia Pacific Weekly Kickstart MXAPJ closed flat for a second straight week amid higher bond yields, and rising oil prices