Report published September 24, 2026

Argentina: Very Weak Growth in July – Goldman Sachs Economic Analysis

Goldman Sachs · September 24, 2026

Argentina's real GDP proxy (EMAE) fell 1.4% yoy (-2.9% mom sa) in July, sharply missing consensus expectations of a 1.3% expansion. Consequently, Goldman Sachs trimmed its 2026 full-year GDP growth forecast by 0.3pp to 1.8%, citing lingering contraction in job-intensive sectors and weak statistical carryover.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Argentina's economic activity (EMAE) contracted 1.4% yoy in July (-1.2% yoy sa; -2.9% mom sa), significantly undershooting market consensus (+1.3% yoy) and Goldman Sachs expectations (+2.2% yoy).
2.Growth has narrowed heavily toward the primary sector (fishing, mining, and agriculture), while labor-intensive sectors like manufacturing (-4.6% yoy) and commerce (-5.1% yoy) continue to drag.
3.Goldman Sachs lowered its 2026 real GDP growth projection by 0.3 percentage points to 1.8%, seeing downside risks as statistical carryover for the year sits at -0.2%.

Bottom Line
KEY NUMBERS (July)
DETAILS
The Economy Performed Poorly in July

Report data

The Economy Performed Poorly in July

Metric	Estimate	Context
EMAE Real GDP	-1.4 % yoy	Argentina monthly economic activity proxy
EMAE Real GDP Seasonally Adjusted	-1.2 % yoy sa	Adjusted for seasonality and one less workday compared to 2025
EMAE Real GDP Sequential Growth	-2.9 % mom sa	Sequential month-over-month contraction in economic activity
Consensus Real GDP Expectation	1.3 % yoy	Consensus projection for July EMAE
Goldman Sachs Real GDP Expectation	2.2 % yoy	GS prior forecast for July EMAE