Report published September 2, 2026
Goldman Sachs Research: Chevron (CVX) Outlines $7B+ Venezuela Expansion and Growth Strategy
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- September 2, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Neil Mehta, Alexa Petrick Breno, Lydia Gould, Josiah Knight
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Chevron and its JV partners announced plans to invest over $7 bn gross (~$3 bn net) in Venezuela over five years to more than double gross production to ~600 kbd by 2031. Goldman Sachs reiterates a Buy rating with a $225 price target.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Chevron and JV partners announced plans to invest >$7 bn gross in Venezuela over 5 years, aiming to double gross production to ~600 kbd by 2031.
- 2.The new agreement assigns Petroindependencia development rights to Carabobo 1 and Carabobo-2-South-A with favorable economics (>50% IRR at $70/b Brent, <$20/b total costs, ~$35/b break-even).
- 3.Higher heavy crude flows from Venezuela into the U.S. Gulf Coast should benefit refiners like Marathon Petroleum, Valero, and Phillips 66, while presenting a marginal headwind for Canadian oil producers.
Table of Contents
- New Agreement Terms
- International Exploration Opportunities
- Refining and Canadian Oil Implications
- Valuation & Key Risks
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Investment in Venezuela | >7 USD bn | Chevron and JV partners planned investment in Venezuela over 5 years. |
| Gross Oil Production Target in Venezuela | ~600 kbd | Targeted gross production in Venezuela by 2031 versus ~280 kbd currently. |
| Net Oil Production Target in Venezuela (CVX) | ~180 kbd | Estimated CVX net production adjusted for royalties against ~$3 bn capital commitment. |
| Venezuela Asset Break-even Price | ~35 USD/b | Estimated break-even price for Chevron's new Venezuelan development areas. |
| Chevron 12-Month Price Target | 225 USD | Goldman Sachs 12-month EV/DACF, FCF Yield, and P/E-based price target for CVX. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Gross Investment in Venezuela: >7 USD bn (Next 5 years (2026-2031))
- Gross Oil Production Target in Venezuela: ~600 kbd (2031)
- Net Oil Production Target in Venezuela (CVX): ~180 kbd (2031)
- Chevron 12-Month Price Target: 225 USD (12-month)
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Themes
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