Report published September 9, 2026

Americas Consumer Cyclicals: 2027 Spending Outlook by Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs · September 9, 2026

Goldman Sachs introduces its 2027 US consumer discretionary cash flow outlook, projecting aggregate pre-savings DCF growth of +4.2% (up from +3.0% in 2026) aided by falling inflation and two expected Fed rate cuts. However, recovery will be uneven as the bottom income quintile lags at +2.8% growth due to persistent essential spending pressures.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.US pre-savings discretionary cash flow (DCF) growth is forecast to accelerate to +4.2% in 2027 from +3.0% in 2026, supported by falling inflation and easing interest rates, though remaining below the +5.1% pre-Covid average.
2.The bottom income quintile will continue to lag broader household DCF growth, rising only +2.8% in 2027 compared to the aggregate +4.2%, due to disproportionately high pressure from essential living expenses.
3.Goldman Sachs marked down its 2026 disposable personal income (DPI) growth forecast by 70 bps to +4.0% and pre-savings DCF growth to +3.0% (down from +3.7% in April 2026), citing slowing real spending and softening labor dynamics.

US Consumer Pulse Check and Our Revised 2026 Outlook
Introducing our 2027 discretionary cash flow outlook

Report data

Exhibit 22: We expect +4.2% DPI growth to translate to +4.2% discretionary cash inflow in 2027, which should support +3.9% adj. DCF growth in the year

Metric	Estimate	Context
Pre-savings Discretionary Cash Flow (DCF) Growth	4.2%	Forecast to accelerate from +3.0% in 2026, though remaining below the +5.1% 2009-2019 pre-Covid average.
Disposable Personal Income (DPI) Growth	4.0%	Revised down by 70 bps from prior estimate of +4.7%.
Disposable Personal Income (DPI) Growth	4.2%	Forecast to improve sequentially from +4.0% in 2026.
Bottom-Quintile Pre-savings DCF Growth	2.8%	Lags the broader US household aggregate growth of +4.2%, but accelerates from +0.5% in 2026.
US Unemployment Rate	4.2%	Goldman Sachs economists forecast the unemployment rate to edge up to 4.2% by year-end 2026.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; BEA; US Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

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Authors / Editors

Kate McShane, CFABonnie HerzogBrooke Roach, CFALizzie DoveLeah Jordan, CFAJon KeypourAnkit PrasadNishi AgarwalMark Jordan, CFAEmily GhoshEthan HuntleyMentesnot AdamuGrace CheeEli Thompson