Report published September 25, 2026

Americas Building - Homebuilders: A Heat Map for Housing | Goldman Sachs Equity Research

Goldman Sachs · September 25, 2026

Single-family housing permits fell 5% YOY on a trailing 12-month basis in August 2026 as rising mortgage rates and macroeconomic uncertainty weighed on consumer sentiment. Goldman Sachs maintains Buy ratings on Meritage Homes (MTH) and D.R. Horton (DHI) for their defensive positioning and capital allocation amid the slowdown.

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Key Takeaways

1.Single-family building permits contracted 5% year-over-year on a trailing 12-month basis in August as rising mortgage rates and macroeconomic uncertainty slowed demand.
2.Rolling 3-month single-family permits grew 3% year-over-year nationally, driven largely by easing comparisons rather than a genuine acceleration in fundamental activity.
3.Homebuilders are slowing start paces and shifting toward build-to-order models and higher-end consumers to gain margin visibility, supporting Buy ratings on MTH and DHI.

Contraction Aligns with Broader Macro Uncertainty and Weaker Consumer
Sequential Improvement on a Rolling 3-Month Basis Reflects Easing Comps
Monthly Home Value Index
Affordability By Market
Builder Exposure by Market

Report data

Exhibit 3: Permits for Top 50 MSAs

Metric	Estimate	Context
Trailing 12-month single-family permits growth	-5.0%	Contracted 5% YOY on a trailing 12-month basis versus ~6% contraction in July.
Trailing 3-month single-family permits growth	3.0%	Up 3% YOY versus flat in July, driven largely by easing year-ago comparisons.
Top 50 MSAs 3-month permits growth	1.0%	Rose 1% YOY for the 3 months ended August vs ~2% in July and ~13% in August 2025.
Zillow Single-Family Home Value Index growth	1.0%	Nationally, single-family home values were up 1% YOY in August, and up 52% since August 2019.
Active listings growth	4.0%	Active listings increased 4% YOY according to Realtor.com.