Report published September 24, 2026

Goldman Sachs: AI Capex, Required Revenues, and What's Priced in the AI Trade

Goldman Sachs · September 24, 2026

Goldman Sachs assesses the sustainability of the AI trade, finding that while hyperscaler capex will reach $1.2 trillion in 2027 and require $300 billion in annual revenues to break even, current market valuations already reflect skepticism about earnings durability. Decelerating capex growth and accelerating software/cloud monetization should support hyperscalers and fabless chipmakers.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Hyperscaler AI capex is tracking toward $800 billion in 2026 and $1.1-$1.2 trillion in 2027, though capex growth will decelerate substantially from nearly 100% in 2026 to 54% in 2027 and 12% in 2028.
2.Hyperscalers need roughly $300 billion in annual AI revenues to break even on 2026-2027 capex investments, while end-users will need to spend approximately $1 trillion annually on AI applications to generate sufficient ROI and margins.
3.Skepticism over AI infrastructure earnings durability is partially priced in; semiconductor valuations reflect conservative expectations, fabless chip stocks offer an attractive risk/reward relative to memory, and decelerating capex will serve as a positive catalyst for hyperscalers.

An update on AI and US equities
1. What is the outlook for AI capex?
2. What revenues are required to generate a return on AI investments?
3. What outlook for AI is the equity market pricing?

Report data

Exhibit 11: Sizing “required” revenues for the application layer

Metric	Estimate	Context
Hyperscaler capex	800.0 USD billion	The largest US AI hyperscalers are on track to spend $800 billion in capex in 2026.
Hyperscaler capex consensus estimate	1.1 USD trillion	Consensus estimates imply hyperscalers will spend $1.1 trillion in 2027.
Hyperscaler capex GS estimate	1.2 USD trillion	GS equity analysts estimate hyperscaler capex will reach $1.2 trillion in 2027 ($130 billion above consensus).
Hyperscaler capex growth rate	54.0%	Capex growth is forecast to decelerate from nearly 100% in 2026 to 54% in 2027 and 12% in 2028.
Hyperscaler required annual AI revenues to break even	300.0 USD billion	Annual AI revenue required to cover depreciation and operating expenses from average 2026-2027 capex.

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.