Advance Auto Parts 4Q25 Earnings Analysis

Advance Auto Parts reported a strong 4Q25 EPS beat of $0.86 vs. $0.40 expected, but free cash flow of -$21m was far below expectations. Goldman Sachs remains Sell-rated with a $49 price target due to concerns over cash flow and turnaround execution.

Key Takeaways

• 1.AAP reported 4Q25 adjusted EPS of $0.86, significantly beating the Goldman Sachs estimate of $0.40 and consensus of $0.41.
• 2.Free cash flow for 4Q25 was -$21 million, missing the implied guidance which suggested an inflow of approximately $187 million to $197 million.
• 3.Goldman Sachs maintains a Sell rating on the stock with a 12-month price target of $49, representing roughly 16% downside from current levels.

Table of Contents

• Analysis
• Implications
• Valuation & Risks
• Disclosure Appendix
• GS Factor Profile
• M&A Rank
• Quantum
• Disclosures
• Company-specific regulatory disclosures
• Price target and rating history chart(s)
• Regulatory disclosures
• Ratings, coverage universe and related definitions
• Global product; distributing entities
• General disclosures

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