Report published September 29, 2026
Adaptation: Persian Gulf Exports Return to 2025 Level – Goldman Sachs Commodities Strategy
Goldman Sachs · September 29, 2026
Persian Gulf oil exports have rebounded to 23.3 mb/d, returning to their 2025 average as crude shipments surged to 19 mb/d, driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Despite ongoing geopolitical risk premia and refined product constraints, Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to moderate to $85/bbl by year-end 2026 and $80/bbl in 2027.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to 23.3 mb/d, matching their 2025 average as exports doubled in September despite infrastructure attacks and blockades.
- 2.Crude accounted for almost 90% of the export rebound reaching 108% of 2025 levels, while refined products remain at 50% due to refinery outages and elevated shipping risks.
- 3.Producers have sharply diverged: Saudi Arabia exports climbed to 11.6 mb/d and UAE rose above 2025 averages, while Iranian seaborne exports dropped to zero.
Table of Contents
- We Estimate that Persian Gulf Oil Exports, Including Estimated “Dark Exports”, Have Recovered to 23.3mb/d Over the Last Week, in Line With Their 2025 Average
- Adaptation: Persian Gulf Exports Return to 2025 Level
- By Type of Oil Exports
- By Exporting Country
Report data
Exhibit 1: We Estimate that Persian Gulf Oil Exports, Including Estimated “Dark Exports”, Have Recovered to 23.3mb/d Over the Last Week, in Line With Their 2025 Average
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Persian Gulf Oil Exports | 23.3 mb/d | Recovered over the last week to match the 2025 average, including estimated dark exports. |
| Persian Gulf Crude Exports | 19 mb/d | Reached 108% of 2025 average, accounting for nearly 90% of the September export recovery. |
| Middle East Refinery Outages | 2.0 mb/d | Refinery outages remain 2.0mb/d above seasonal norms due to infrastructure damage. |
| Saudi Arabia Oil Exports | 11.6 mb/d | More than doubled in September, reaching 11.6mb/d following redirection of Red Sea exports to eastern ports. |
| Dated Brent Physical Price | 120 $/bbl | Physical price elevated near $120/bbl due to high geopolitical risk premium and low non-OECD inventories. |
Reports in this series
Oil Comment is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 29, 2026.
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