Report published September 23, 2026
A New Paradigm for the Markets: Active Management Matters More Than Ever – Edmond de Rothschild
Edmond de Rothschild · September 23, 2026
Resilient economic growth and persistent inflation have forced the Federal Reserve and ECB to resume monetary tightening, eliminating rate cuts as the baseline scenario. This shift creates market asymmetry and dispersion across sectors and asset classes, making fundamental security selection and active management critical.
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Finvaulta summarizes Edmond de Rothschild's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The market regime has changed as resilient economic growth and persistent inflation have prompted central banks to prioritize inflation control over rate cuts.
- 2.Rate cuts are no longer the baseline scenario; both the Federal Reserve and ECB have resumed interest rate hikes with 25 bp increases in September.
- 3.Markets face a new asymmetry where weak economic data no longer automatically trigger lower rates, and strong data can pressure risk assets by delaying monetary easing.
Table of Contents
- Resilient Growth, Persistent Inflation
- Dispersion Becomes a Performance Factor
- Key Takeaways
Report data
Portrait of Alain Krief, Global Chief Investment Officer
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Fed benchmark interest rate hike | 25 bps | The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 3.75%-4.00%. |
| Federal funds target range | 3.75%-4.00%% | Federal funds rate level following the September 16 rate hike. |
| U.S. GDP growth projection | 2.3% | U.S. central bank projection for full-year 2026 GDP growth. |
| U.S. Unemployment rate projection | 4.1% | Fed projection for the U.S. unemployment rate in 2026. |
| U.S. PCE inflation projection | 3.7% | Federal Reserve projection for inflation measured by the PCE index in 2026. |
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