Report published September 27, 2026
What You Need to Know for the Week Ahead: Deutsche Bank US Economic Preview
Deutsche Bank · September 27, 2026
Deutsche Bank previews the upcoming week's US economic docket, projecting +60k headline nonfarm payroll gains and an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate for September. The authors expect incoming growth and inflation data to support their baseline view of two additional Fed rate hikes in December and March.
Read the remaining 4 pages
Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Deutsche Bank expects September nonfarm payrolls to increase by +60k (both headline and private), consistent with the breakeven rate of job growth, with the unemployment rate remaining flat at 4.1%.
- 2.BEA's annual benchmark revisions to GDP and personal income/PCE could recontextualize growth trends since 2021 and lower July year-over-year core PCE to around 3.0%-3.1% due to methodological changes in calculating prices for legal services, software, and portfolio management.
- 3.Incoming economic data is expected to validate the Fed's hawkish posture, reinforcing DB's base case of two additional 25bps rate hikes at the December and March FOMC meetings to reverse previous risk-management cuts.
Table of Contents
- What you need to know for the week ahead
- Post Employment Conference Call:
- Figure 1: Data docket and DB forecasts
- Figure 2: Fedspeak calendar
- Figure 3: DB US Economics forecast summary
- Figure 4: Data calendar & DB forecasts
Report data
Figure 3: DB US Economics forecast summary
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| September Headline Nonfarm Payrolls (Forecast) | 60 k | Deutsche Bank forecast for September headline payroll growth, down from +162k in August |
| Unemployment Rate (Forecast) | 4.1% | Expected to remain unchanged at 4.1% for September |
| Average Hourly Earnings Growth (Forecast) | 0.4% | Month-over-month growth forecast for September vs. +0.3% prior |
| August Core PCE (Forecast) | 0.27% | August month-over-month core PCE reading forecast vs. +0.25% prior |
| Fed Funds Target Rate (Q4 2026 Forecast) | 4.13% | Quarter-end Fed Funds rate forecast in summary table |
Reports in this series
US Economic Notes is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 27, 2026.
Part of the US Economic Notes series — view all 20 editions
Looking for the latest edition? US Econ Notes Oct 9 (Oct 9, 2026)
- Aug 28US Econ Notes Aug 28
- Sep 4US Econ Notes Sep 4
- Sep 11DB US Econ Notes Sep 11
- Sep 18US Econ Notes Sep 18
Access the full report
And others from the leading tier 1 banks.
Free account: read previews and a daily allowance of full reports. Pro removes the daily limit.