Report published September 4, 2026

What You Need to Know for the Week Ahead: US Inflation and Fed Rate Hike Outlook

Deutsche Bank · September 4, 2026

Following a solid August labor report with 162k payroll gains, this week's US CPI and PPI prints will decide whether the Fed hikes at the September 16 FOMC meeting. Deutsche Bank expects a 0.21% core CPI and an implied 0.21% core PCE, making a rate hike the most likely policy outcome absent downside surprises.

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Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The upcoming August CPI and PPI reports will likely determine whether the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates at the September 16 FOMC meeting.
2.The August employment data outperformed expectations with a 162k payroll gain, net upward revisions of 55k, and a drop in the U-6 rate to 7.7%, reflecting a stable labor market above breakeven levels.
3.Deutsche Bank forecasts August headline CPI at +0.38% mom (boosted by gas) and core CPI at +0.21% mom, lowering the year-over-year core rate to 2.38%.

What you need to know for the week ahead
Figure 1: Data docket and DB forecasts
Figure 2: Fedspeak calendar
Figure 3: DB US Economics forecast summary
Figure 4: Data calendar and DB forecasts
Appendix 1

Report data

Figure 3: DB US Economics forecast summary

Metric	Estimate	Context
Headline Nonfarm Payrolls Change	162.0 k	August employment release outperforming expectations
Private Payrolls Change	127.0 k	Private payroll gains broaden out beyond health care
Unemployment Rate	4.14%	Ticked up a couple basis points
U-6 Underutilization Rate	7.7%	Broader labor market underutilization fell two-tenths
Labor Force Participation Rate	61.6%	Rose by two-tenths, reversing July declines for older and younger workers