Report published August 28, 2026
Deutsche Bank US Economic Notes: August Employment Preview & Fed Rate Hike Outlook
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Deutsche Bank
- Report date
- August 28, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Justin Weidner, Matthew Luzzetti, Brett Ryan, Amy Yang
Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Following Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech, Deutsche Bank previews the upcoming US data docket led by Friday's August employment report. Deutsche Bank expects nonfarm payrolls to rebound by +65k and the unemployment rate to hold at 4.1%, keeping the Fed on track for a rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Fed Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish Jackson Hole address emphasizing that summer inflation readings do not indicate underlying improvement, cementing DB's view of a rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting.
- 2.August nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rebound to +65k (vs. -23k prior) driven by state and local education hiring, while private payrolls are expected to remain muted at +25k with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%.
- 3.Upcoming labor indicators (JOLTS, ADP at +47k, and ISM employment components) are anticipated to depict a stable 'low hiring / low firing' labor market consistent with full employment.
Table of Contents
- What you need to know for the week ahead
- Figure 1: Data docket and DB forecasts
- Figure 2: Fedspeak calendar
- Figure 3: DB US Economics forecast summary
- Figure 4: Data calendar and DB forecasts
- Appendix 1
- Analyst Certification
- Important Disclosures
- Additional Information
Report data
Figure 3: DB US Economics forecast summary
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast | 65 k | Headline nonfarm payrolls expected to rebound after previous -23k print due to education hiring payback |
| Private Payrolls Forecast | 25 k | Muted private payroll forecast compared to +30k prior |
| Unemployment Rate Forecast | 4.1% | Expected to remain unchanged, with risk of rounding up to 4.2% |
| Average Hourly Earnings Forecast | 0.4 % mom | Rebounding following soft prints in specific sectors |
| Manufacturing ISM Forecast | 55.8 index | Survey forecast vs 55.6 prior |
Reports in this series
US Economic Notes is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 28, 2026.
Part of the US Economic Notes series — view all 14 editions
Looking for the latest edition? US Econ Notes Sep 4 (Sep 4, 2026)
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast: 65 k (August 2026) · Source: Deutsche Bank Research
- Private Payrolls Forecast: 25 k (August 2026) · Source: Deutsche Bank Research
- Unemployment Rate Forecast: 4.1 % (August 2026) · Source: Deutsche Bank Research
- Average Hourly Earnings Forecast: 0.4 % mom (August 2026) · Source: Deutsche Bank Research
- Manufacturing ISM Forecast: 55.8 index (August 2026) · Source: ISM, Deutsche Bank Research