Report published September 8, 2026
Deutsche Bank ECB Client Survey: Rate Hike Probabilities and Terminal Rate Expectations
Deutsche Bank · September 8, 2026
Deutsche Bank's client survey ahead of the September 2026 ECB meeting reveals high conviction for a 25bp hike, but client expectations remain less hawkish than market pricing. Clients are split on the terminal rate between 2.50% and 3.00%, while risks from the Iranian conflict and summer weather events have moderated.
Read the remaining 4 pages
Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Clients widely expect a 25bp ECB rate hike in September (average 86-90% probability), though conviction remains slightly lower than market pricing (>99%).
- 2.Views on the ECB terminal rate are split: 37% see a peak of 2.75%, 31% see 2.50%, and 26% see 3.00%, with rate cuts not widely expected until Q2 2027 or later.
- 3.Perceived economic risks from the Iranian conflict have moderated since June, though recovery of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been pushed back to Q4 2026/Q1 2027.
Table of Contents
- Focus Europe
- Survey background
- Questions focused on the September meeting
- Questions focused on the next rate move
- Terminal rate
- Questions focused on the September staff projections
- Questions on the impact of the conflict in Iran
- Weather and drought
- Appendix 1
- Additional Information
Report data
Figure 7: At what level do you expect the Deposit Facility Rate (DFR) to peak during the current tightening cycle? — as of September 7, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Client Survey Sample Size | 36 respondents | Number of participants in Deutsche Bank's ECB client survey. |
| Expected Probability of a 25bp ECB Rate Hike in September | 86% | Average survey respondent probability of a 25bp hike at the September ECB meeting, up from 78% in June. |
| Market Implied Probability of ECB September Hike | 99% | Current market pricing for an ECB rate hike at the September meeting at time of writing. |
| Share of Respondents Expecting 2.75% ECB Terminal Rate | 37% | Share of respondents forecasting a terminal rate of 2.75%. |
| Share Expecting ECB to Hike Too Much (Policy Mistake) | 56% | Share of respondents believing the most likely ECB policy mistake would be overtightening, down from 71% in June. |
Reports in this series
Focus Europe is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 8, 2026.
Part of the Focus Europe series — view all 4 editions
Looking for the latest edition? 26 09 10 ECB Review (Sep 10, 2026)
Access the full report
And others from the leading tier 1 banks.
Free account: read previews and a daily allowance of full reports. Pro removes the daily limit.