Report published September 30, 2026
To Break or Not to Break: Deutsche Bank FX Strategy on EUR/USD Range Support
Deutsche Bank · September 30, 2026
Deutsche Bank FX Research pushes back against consensus expectations for a USD breakout, arguing EUR/USD will hold the bottom of its 1.13-1.20 range. The bank maintains a year-end EUR/USD forecast of 1.17 driven by resilient global growth, peaked Fed pricing, and normalizing energy risk premiums.
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Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Deutsche Bank advises against chasing EUR/USD lower at the bottom of its 1.13-1.20 range, forecasting 1.17 by year-end.
- 2.Global growth remains resilient across the UK, Australia, China, and Europe, challenging the narrative of US economic exceptionalism.
- 3.Peak USD yield support has likely been reached as terminal Fed pricing appears full and further yield increases would likely stem from term premium rather than USD-supportive policy rate hikes.
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD Annual Range Low | 1.13 | Bottom of the range for EUR/USD. |
| EUR/USD Annual Range High | 1.20 | Top of the range for EUR/USD. |
| EUR/USD Forecast | 1.17 | FX Blueprint forecast for EUR/USD by year-end. |
| Crude Oil Price Target | 90 USD/barrel | Expected oil price as Middle East flows normalize. |
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