Report published September 30, 2026

The VIX Is Not on the MOVE: Deutsche Bank on Bond and Equity Volatility Divergence

Deutsche Bank · September 30, 2026

The MOVE index has surged roughly 35% in September as the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007, yet the VIX remains subdued near 16. Strong nominal growth and AI capex continue to support equities despite rising duration costs, keeping stock markets calm ahead of Q4.

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Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The MOVE Index and VIX are sharply diverging, as bond implied volatility surged 35% in September while equity volatility remains subdued below its long-run average at around 16.
2.US 10-year Treasury yields reached their highest levels since 2007, rising over 100 bps since February and over 50 bps in September alone.
3.Equities remain resilient due to strong nominal growth and the AI capex boom boosting corporate earnings, offsetting duration headwinds as markets head into Q4 with supportive seasonality.

Report data

Figure 1: The VIX and MOVE Index back to 2010 with key events annotated

Metric	Estimate	Context
MOVE Index	106.60 index points	Equates to roughly 6bps of daily Treasury yield volatility, quite elevated without being extreme.
VIX Index	16 index points	Implies roughly 1% a day move for the S&P 500.
10-Year Treasury Yield Change	50 bps	10-year Treasury yield has moved to its highest level since 2007, up more than a full percentage point since late February.
S&P 500 Distance from Highs	2%	Broader equities remain resilient despite Treasury volatility.