Report published September 8, 2026
Deutsche Bank Research: The Home Straight – Global Cross-Asset Dynamics (September 2026)
Deutsche Bank · September 8, 2026
Deutsche Bank's monthly chartbook examines the global bond sell-off as a multi-century normalization supported by robust US nominal GDP growth of 6.6%. The report highlights growing macroeconomic rationale for central bank rate hikes, record-breaking corporate earnings driven by hyperscaler AI capex, and political shifts ahead of US midterms.
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Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The rise in global sovereign bond yields reflects a long-term normalization rather than extreme stress, supported by elevated US nominal GDP growth running at 6.6% YoY.
- 2.Macro indicators and policy rules argue for Fed rate hikes to reverse earlier insurance cuts, driven by sticky 3% trend PCE inflation, strong payroll reacceleration, and loose financial conditions.
- 3.Global corporate earnings experienced their strongest non-pandemic Q2 YoY expansion on record, headlined by an AI capex boom led by top hyperscalers.
Table of Contents
- The bond sell-off in perspective...
- Should the Fed raise rates...?
- Should the ECB raise rates...?
- Midterms are fast coming into view...
- Global earnings may never have been stronger...
- The AI train rolls on...
- Japan is worth a watch...
Report data
10-year US treasury yields — as of September 7, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US Nominal GDP Growth YoY | 6.6% | Highest YoY rate since 2005 outside the post-COVID rebound period. |
| Gap between US Nominal GDP and 10yr UST Yield | 180.0 bps | Spot Nominal GDP gap to 10-year yields indicates US economic growth remains comfortably above funding costs. |
| US CPI Inflation | 3.4% | Historical correlations imply this inflation level would correlate to well over 100bps of Fed tightening. |
| Japan BoJ Foreign Exchange Intervention | 15.4 JPY trillion | Highest total intervention amount by Japan since 1991 to support the Yen. |
| US Treasury Total Return Index Performance | 15.0% | Index returns since yields peaked in October 2023, supported by higher coupons. |
Reports in this series
Monthly Chartbook is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 8, 2026.
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