Report published September 1, 2026
The Hausblick: Macro Outlook Germany – Deutsche Bank Research (September 2026)
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Deutsche Bank
- Report date
- September 1, 2026
- Analysis as of
- September 1, 2026
Authors / editors: Felicitas Henze, Marc Schattenberg, Robin Winkler
Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Deutsche Bank raised Germany's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.0%, citing resilient export demand and fiscal tailwinds despite tightening monetary policy and elevated energy costs. However, severe structural competitiveness pressures, driven by Chinese price competition and an aging capital stock, continue to burden core domestic industries.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Deutsche Bank raised Germany's 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 1.0% (and 1.3% in 2027), supported by robust export performance and expanding fiscal stimulus.
- 2.Persistent energy and inflation pressures are expected to keep central banks hawkish, with the ECB projected to hike 25 bps in September and the Fed delivering 25 bps hikes in September and December.
- 3.Germany faces acute structural competitiveness challenges compounded by Chinese industrial overcapacity, leading to a record trade deficit with China of 2.05% of GDP and German car imports from China exceeding exports for the first time.
Table of Contents
- At a Glance
- Global Economy
- German Economy
- Structural Challenges
- Appendix
- The authors
- Our latest forecasts (1/2)
- Our latest forecasts (2/2)
- Disclaimer
Report data
Trade deficit with China at a record high — as of September 1, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| German Real GDP Growth Forecast | 1.0% | Raised from previous forecast due to resilience against energy shocks and robust export activity. |
| German Overall Government Deficit | 4.1 % of GDP | Widening deficit reflecting accelerated federal expenditures and special investment funds. |
| German Bilateral Trade Deficit with China | 2.05 % of German GDP | Reached a record high driven by Chinese overcapacity and strong import volumes of Chinese electric vehicles. |
| Global Real GDP Growth Forecast | 3.2% | Expected robust expansion driven by resilient US growth (2.2%) despite slower euro area growth (0.5%). |
| German Manufacturing PMI | 54.3 points | Sharply increased, signaling strong expansion in manufacturing momentum at the start of Q3. |
Reports in this series
The Hausblick is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 1, 2026.
Looking for the latest edition? The Hausblick Hanswolf Note (Sep 3, 2026)
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- German Real GDP Growth Forecast: 1.0 % (2026) · Source: Deutsche Bank Research
- German Overall Government Deficit: 4.1 % of GDP (2026) · Source: Federal Statistical Office, Deutsche Bank Research
- German Bilateral Trade Deficit with China: 2.05 % of German GDP (Q2 2026) · Source: Federal Statistical Office, Deutsche Bank Research
- Global Real GDP Growth Forecast: 3.2 % (2026) · Source: IMF, Deutsche Bank Research
- German Manufacturing PMI: 54.3 points (August 2026) · Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, ifo, Deutsche Bank Research