Report published September 25, 2026
Superglue: Deutsche Bank on the Global Capex Boom, AI, and Market Resilience
Deutsche Bank · September 25, 2026
Global market resilience across equities, credit, and yields is underpinned by an exceptional multi-year capex boom driven by AI and strategic autonomy. Historically, such capex cycles are accompanied by a gradually weakening US dollar, suggesting investors should avoid chasing the dollar higher.
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Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Growth is the 'superglue' holding markets together, explaining elevated yields driven by neutral rates, near-record equities, tight credit spreads, and subdued volatility.
- 2.An unprecedented global capex cycle driven by AI and government-funded strategic autonomy could be one of the largest post-WWII booms, potentially lasting 5 years with a 3% to 6% cumulative GDP contribution.
- 3.Historical capex booms have coincided with a gradual weakening of the US dollar, supporting the view against a large USD breakout or chasing the currency higher.
Table of Contents
- Figure 1: Global Capex Booms in Perspective
- Figure 2: Top-5 Capex booms in history
Report data
Figure 2: Top-5 Capex booms in history
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Average duration of top-5 capex booms ex-WWII | 3 years | Average length of major post-war capital expenditure booms prior to the current cycle. |
| Estimated duration of current capex boom | 5 years | Estimated duration under conservative assumptions for the current capex boom. |
| Cumulative GDP contribution of current capex boom | 3 - 6% | Range from conservative (3%) to optimistic (6%) estimates of cumulative GDP impact. |
| 1980s capex boom size | 7.1% | Synchronized DM capex, property and credit boom driven by de-regulation and Volcker disinflation. |
| Postwar / Golden Age capex boom size | 16% | Rebuilding after WWII, ranked as largest capex boom. |
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